Fiscal Analysis

From Middle East Conflict to Domestic Pressure: Kenya’s Export Economy Under Strain

While the country reels from the controversy surrounding the fuel scandal, the long-term effects of disruptions in the Middle East are already taking shape. Vellum Kenya’s “Not Our War, But Still Our Problem: Africa and the Middle East Crisis” highlights both the near-term and structural implications of the U.S.–Iran conflict on African economies. Beyond energy, […]...

The Budget-Making Cycle: Taking Stock in the Run-up to the Finance Bill, 2026

By the time the Finance Bill reaches Parliament, the most important decisions have already been made. And often, public debate begins when tax proposals are tabled. In reality, Kenya’s fiscal dire...

6 Mar 2026

Navigating Kenya’s Standards Levy: Legal Ruling, Economic Impact, and the Role of Public Input

The High Court of Kenya recently delivered an interim ruling in the petition filed by the Green Thinking Action Party challenging the Standards (Standards Levy) Order, 2025 (Legal Notice No. 136 of 20...

5 Dec 2025

Fortune Favours the Bold: Kenya’s Strategic Turn in Fiscal Governance

There are moments in a nation’s economic journey when circumstance ceases to be negotiable, when the only way forward is through reinvention. Kenya stands precisely at such a juncture. The country�...

28 Nov 2025

The Quiet Emergence of a Domestic Yield Curve: Why Safaricom and EABL Matter More Than Their Numbers

Kenya’s capital markets rarely enjoy the spotlight for structural progress. Too often, they are defined by volatility, political noise, or long periods of stagnation. Yet beneath that surface, real ...

7 Nov 2025

The Promise and Peril of the Kenya Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill, 2025

Kenya’s Draft Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill, 2025, marks a turning point in how the country proposes to manage, invest, and preserve national wealth. Behind its technical clauses lies a profound fiscal...

7 Nov 2025

The Politics Behind Africa’s Sovereign Wealth Funds: Lessons for Kenya

The National Treasury recently published the 2025 Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Bill, sparking considerable discussion among financial and governance analysts. The fund is expected to comprise three mai...

8 Aug 2025

Global Squeeze, Local Strain: Kenya’s Tough Financial Road Ahead

Kenya is operating in a tightly constrained economic space. Debt levels are high. Credit remains tight. Borrowing costs have climbed. And global trade winds are no longer in our favour. In this enviro...

25 Jul 2025

Political Heat Rises as Moody’s Flags Mounting Debt Risks

The rise of Kenya’s debt, fuelled by fiscal deficits and a widening gap between revenue and expenditure, has become a significant political issue due to its high levels and the associated risks to t...

20 Jun 2025

Regulating Responsiveness: CBK’s Warning to Banks

In April 2025, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) announced that it would begin imposing daily fines on banks that fail to adjust lending rates downward in line with recent reductions in the Central Bank...

13 Jun 2025

Budget FY 2025/26 Highlights

The National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, Hon. John Mbadi, this week delivered his first official Budget Day speech before the National Assembly under the theme: “Stimulating Sustainable Economic Rec...