President William Ruto’s aggressive push into the Nyanza region is reshaping the region’s political arithmetic, as Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders embrace his tour and turn once-hostile ground into a stage for cooperation and quiet realignment.  

The inroads into the region are coming at a time when the Linda Mwananchi opposition movement is grappling with competing ambitions, and at a time when the former President Uhuru Kenyatta is entering a new phase of his political life after agreeing to relinquish the Jubilee Party leadership following a High Court ruling that bars retired presidents from holding party office beyond six months after leaving State House.   

President Ruto is seeking to build on his cooperation through the broad-based pact with ODM and to make inroads in Nyanza and other ODM strongholds. At the same time, Linda Mwananchi leaders Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, and James Orengo, all former members of the Orange Party, grapple with competing ambitions over who should lead the contest against the President in next year’s general election.   

Babu Owino, the Embakasi East MP, has disclosed that he already has a registered political party, which he says predates the formation of Linda Mwananchi. He recently said he traces his decision to establish his own political vehicle to February 10, 2025. That was when ODM leaders gathered at Bomas of Kenya for an event he initially believed was a prayer meeting for the late then-party leader Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission Chairperson position. 

He maintains that his political journey towards establishing an alternative party began well before Linda Mwananchi emerged and was driven by his belief that he would not receive ODM’s backing in his bid to become Nairobi governor.   

The Linda Mwananchi dispute has intensified following the emergence of the Ukombozi People’s Party as another possible vehicle for the movement. Reports indicate that the party is linked to the late former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo and is being considered as one of several vehicles through which the movement could contest the 2027 elections. Meanwhile, Siaya County Governor James Orengo’s presidential ambitions have added another layer to the dissent.    

However, the movement’s principals have sought to dismiss reports of fallout. The competing positions point to a broader challenge: whether Linda Mwananchi can turn the momentum generated by its rallies into a coherent political organisation without its leaders’ individual ambitions pulling the movement in different directions. As Linda Mwananchi continues to grapple with competing ambitions, ODM leaders who accompanied the President on the Nyanza tour pledged their support for his re-election bid but insisted that a proportional share of government positions must match the party’s backing. 

ODM Deputy Party leader Simba Arati said the party expects an equal share of government roles in exchange for its support in 2027, warning against what he called “friendly fire” within the coalition in the Nyanza region.   

Uhuru Kenyatta  

The former president has agreed to step down as chair of the Jubilee Party following a High Court ruling that upheld a law banning retired presidents from holding leadership positions in political parties. However, the ruling does not prevent him from belonging to a political party or participating in political activities.  

Kenyatta is also the chairman of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party, a role separate from his leadership position in the Jubilee Party. Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka says the coalition’s council is set to meet to decide on the way forward.   

Section 6(1) of the Presidential Retirement Benefits Act, No. 11 of 2003, addresses the holding of a leadership office in a political party. Azimio’s meeting will deliberate on the ruling and issue its resolution in accordance with its coalition constitution, the Political Parties Act No. 11 of 2011, and the Deed of Agreement, with any consequent changes duly notified to the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties.    

The High Court ruling comes as Azimio considers its next organisational phase, and the possible consequence is that the coalition may now present itself as a vehicle not centred on a former president, even as Uhuru Kenyatta remains a significant member. However, it is a multi-party opposition coalition led by current political players.