Raila Odinga’s political brand, long recognised as the face of the opposition, is now at a crossroads. Odinga’s future role remains uncertain and unclear, with Kenyans remaining sharply divided over his political ambitions. While an increasing number expect him to align with President William Ruto, a substantial group still sees Odinga as a key figure in the opposition, either as a candidate or a kingmaker.

According to the latest national survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), released on September 24,  2025, 32 per cent of Kenyans expect Odinga to support President Ruto’s re-election bid. Meanwhile, 23 per cent believe he will return to the opposition and run for the Presidency, with another 17 per cent anticipating that he will endorse an alternative opposition candidate. Only 14 per cent foresee him stepping back entirely and retiring from active politics ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Only one-third of Kenyans expect Odinga to support President Ruto’s re-election bid, though the remaining two-thirds are very divided as to what his position will be between contesting himself, supporting another candidate, or retreating to private or non-political life,” the report reads in part.

The former Prime Minister has also clearly failed to win the support of his entire Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party entourage for the broad-based government. This was evident in the protests led by prominent figures such as Kisumu County Governor Prof. Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o, Siaya County Governor James Orengo, and, more recently, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, along with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Sifuna and Owino have joined like-minded youthful Members of Parliament in the Kenya Moja Movement, aiming to shake up the political arena.

The uncertainty surrounding Odinga’s position in the 2027 elections concerns both supporters and opponents of the broad-based government. Only a third of Kenyans expect him to back the incumbent President, and just over half of the supporters of the broad-based government share this expectation.

2027 Presidential Race

Amid the uncertain situation, Odinga advised ODM members not to discuss the party’s plans for the 2027 elections, emphasising that they should remain aligned with its political strategy. He even hinted at the possibility of endorsing a candidate in the 2027 elections, but urged leaders to stay silent until ODM officially announced its next move. He has remained tight-lipped about his own intentions to run for the presidency in the upcoming 2027 polls.

“Don’t commit the party to some things that have not been discussed. Who told you ODM does not have a candidate in 2027? As ODM, we have a clear plan that we have agreed on, and let us implement it. Other decisions will be made when the time comes,” Odinga said.