As opposition bigwigs plot how to pull another 2002 moment, in which the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) unity ended President Daniel arap Moi’s 24-year rule, a rise in inflammatory language, ethnic undertones, and confrontational rhetoric threatens to inflame old wounds.

Political leaders and their supporters are increasingly resorting to inflammatory remarks, as the debate over whether President William Ruto will secure a second term is increasingly taking a hostile turn. 

Political temperatures have been rising, with opponents going after each other. They are pointing fingers at one another and blaming the police for either inaction or taking sides. In addition, an alarm has been raised over a growing decline in patriotism, especially among young people. This is being blamed on corruption, exclusion, unemployment, and ethnic divisions.

The issue might worsen because the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) is allegedly not working as expected. Recently, the Commission has conflicted with Members of Parliament (MPs), who say it is not doing its job correctly. MPs have been pushing for the Commission’s abolishment for what they claim is a failure to address the spread of hate speech in the country. The latest onslaught is expected to start with the slashing of its budget.

In February, members of the National Assembly’s Administration and Internal Security Committee said the NCIC had outlived its usefulness. The legislatures argued that the Commission had not effectively executed its mandate. “You have to justify the expenditure of public funds allocated to you because you are doing little to ensure peaceful coexistence in the country. You summon the people you are investigating, and then the matter ends there. You need to pull up your socks,” said Committee Chairperson Narok West MP Gabriel Tongoyo.

As the debate of whether NCIC is effectively executing its mandate is ongoing, politicians and their followers are having a field day. In the recent past, the country has witnessed violence associated with political events. For instance, the storming of several functions where former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his entourage had gathered, among other incidents, signals the return of politically sponsored violence.

Recently, the NCIC revealed that it is managing 28 active cases of hate speech, ethnic contempt, and discrimination. These include 15 cases of ethnic hatred, four cases of hate speech, two involving ethnic discrimination, and seven that combine hate speech and discrimination. On Wednesday, May 21, the Commission said it had begun hotspot mapping across the country to identify areas at risk of election-related violence ahead of the 2027 general election.

The NCIC said the mapping is a key part of its early warning strategy. It aims to prevent unrest and build lasting peace through community engagement and stronger collaboration with national institutions. It stated it works closely with the electoral commission, civil society groups, the media, and other key actors to encourage peaceful campaigns and responsible leadership. It stressed that peaceful elections are not an event but a process, which has already begun.

“This exercise aims at identifying regions with a history or emerging signs of electoral-related tension, violence, or incitement. Our goal is clear: to ensure that every part of Kenya is safe, cohesive, and peaceful before, during, and after the 2027 elections,” said NCIC Chairman Samuel Kobia.

The NCIC said it remains committed to promoting peace and unity in the country, particularly in the face of growing challenges posed by hate speech and ethnic contempt.

The Commission uses its “Wall of Shame” and “Wall of Fame” tools to highlight individuals who undermine or support national cohesion to strengthen public accountability. Those guilty of spreading hate may be named and blocked from holding public office. “The Wall of Shame publicly names and shames perpetrators of hate speech and ethnic contempt, especially those attempting to undermine national unity,” the NCIC stated.

Established under the National Cohesion and Integration Act of 2008, the NCIC was created to promote national identity and reconciliation following the 2007 post-election violence, which left more than 1,600 people dead. The NCIC’s mandate includes fostering equality, good relations, and peaceful coexistence among ethnic and racial communities and advising the government on cohesion matters.