Recent remarks by Moses Kuria, President William Ruto’s Senior Adviser to the Council of Economic Advisors, have stirred political controversy, as they are rich in meaning and might imply a dramatic shift in the political landscape as the country heads towards the 2027 general election.

During a live TV interview on June 22, Kuria asserted that there will not be an election in 2027 for president – a politically loaded statement expressed in metaphor.

“There are some people who are practising for a football match that will not happen. There won’t be an election in 2027 for the presidency. There won’t be a contest. Let me ask you, 2002, was there an election?… It was a rubber stamp. Kibaki, we agreed. Have you ever seen that margin again? Seventy-one to 20-something, is that an election? That’s almost something like rivalling Museveni with his 98%. It was a moment, so 2027 will be another moment like 2002. There is going to be so much consensus in the country. Wazee wataketi chini and say, ‘We have two options. Go Rwanda way, destroy the nation, Rwanda way, or let’s agree,’” Kuria said.

The Johann Krigler Report – formally known as the Report of the Independent Review Commission (IREC) on the 2007 elections – states that no free and fair elections can be conducted without a fully functional and independent electoral commission at least two years in advance of the polls.

On June 30, Kuria said, “In another 39 days, we will start the 24-month countdown to the 2027 elections. Kriegler told us that there cannot be a free and fair election if we don’t have a commission two years before the election.”

He went on to say, “Going by our litigious nature, this case will go all the way to the Supreme Court. It may continue until September 2027. So, the current administration will continue being in office in the absence of an election.”

This claim has stirred further political debate and constitutional scrutiny.

However, the new chairperson and commissioners were gazetted by President Ruto on June 10, but their appointment is a matter before the court.

In May, the High Court issued conservatory orders stopping the gazettement and swearing-in of the new  Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) team. This was a result of a petition filed to challenge the nomination of the chairperson and commissioners.

Already, the IEBC is facing other hurdles that have threatened to derail its operations. They include budget cuts, huge pending bills, delayed boundary delimitation, and the opposition’s disapproval.

Boundaries Review

Article 89(2) of the Constitution mandates that IEBC review the names and boundaries of constituencies every eight to 12 years, with the last review conducted in March 2012. The delay has put this constitutional requirement at risk.

In May, IEBC told the Supreme Court that holding the 2027 general election without reviewing electoral boundaries would be unconstitutional and could invalidate the entire process.

IEBC, through its lawyers, admitted that the legal deadline for the exercise had already passed. However, the electoral body argued that skipping the boundary review would lead to an election that lacks credibility and exposes the results to legal challenge.

Budget

The electoral body is also facing a budget deficit of at least Ksh4.32 billion. IEBC CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan stated that the agency had initially requested Ksh61.7 billion, but the amount was subsequently reduced to Ksh57.38 billion.

Additionally, the IEBC has Ksh3.7 billion in pending bills owed to suppliers of goods and services.