The Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, and Forestry has unveiled Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), covering 2031 to 2035, signalling an ambitious approach to tackling climate change. This new climate commitment builds on the country’s ongoing journey toward a low-carbon, climate-resilient future, despite Kenya’s historically low contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. Kenya’s emissions per capita remain well below the global average, at just 2.09 metric tonnes in 2022 compared to the global average of 6.76 metric tonnes. Nevertheless, the impacts of climate change on Kenya’s economy and society have been profound, with the country experiencing recurring droughts, devastating floods and rising temperatures. These events have disrupted livelihoods and ecosystems, causing economic losses equivalent to 3–5% of GDP annually.

At the heart of Kenya’s new NDC is a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2035 relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This translates to a reduction of 75.25 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Kenya has committed to achieving 20% of this reduction through domestic resources, while the remaining 80% is conditional upon international support, particularly in finance, technology transfer, and capacity building. Compared to its previous NDC, which aimed for a 32% reduction, this represents a clear progression in ambition, aligning Kenya more closely with global climate targets, including the 1.5°C temperature limit under the Paris Agreement.

A major pillar of Kenya’s mitigation strategy is transforming its energy sector. The country already sources about 90% of its electricity from renewable energy, led by geothermal, followed by hydropower, wind, and solar. However, the energy sector still faces significant challenges, including high electricity costs and inefficiencies in power systems. To address this, Kenya plans to deepen reforms to make electricity more affordable, accessible, and reliable. By 2035, the country intends to achieve nearly 100% renewable electricity in the national grid. This, in turn, will unlock low-carbon growth opportunities in other sectors such as transport, manufacturing, and agriculture. For instance, affordable electricity will support the shift to electric mobility, facilitate e-cooking solutions, and enhance the adoption of green technologies in industries.

Kenya’s strategy adopts a “whole-of-government” and “whole-of-society” approach. This means climate action is not the domain of one ministry or agency alone but requires coordination across all sectors and levels of government. The NDC emphasises the need for an integrated and sequenced approach, aligning climate goals with national development priorities. Stakeholder engagement was a key part of the NDC development process, with consultations involving county governments, civil society, the private sector, academia, youth organisations, and marginalised communities. This inclusive process ensured that the voices of vulnerable and underrepresented groups were considered, particularly in shaping gender-responsive and socially equitable climate actions.

Adaptation remains a critical focus area in Kenya’s climate agenda, reflecting the country’s vulnerability to climate shocks. The NDC envisions a climate-resilient society where people, infrastructure, ecosystems, and economic sectors can thrive despite the risks posed by a changing climate. Priority adaptation actions include building resilient agriculture systems, strengthening water resource management, improving early warning systems, enhancing disaster risk reduction, and protecting biodiversity through nature-based solutions. The estimated cost of implementing adaptation and addressing loss and damage for 2031–2035 is USD 17.7 billion. Like the mitigation plan, Kenya intends to fund 19% of this cost domestically and will rely on international partners to support the remaining 81%.

The NDC also emphasises the just transition. This means ensuring the move toward a low-carbon economy does not leave vulnerable groups behind. Kenya has committed to promoting green jobs, building climate resilience in informal settlements, empowering women and youth, and integrating climate education in school curricula. By implementing the National Green Skills and Green Jobs Strategy, Kenya aims to prepare its workforce for opportunities in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and eco-tourism. Notably, the NDC also recognises the need to address the negative impacts of climate response measures, like job losses in carbon-intensive industries, through targeted support and retraining.

Kenya’s NDC highlights the importance of transparency and accountability. A robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system will track the progress of mitigation and adaptation efforts. The Climate Change Directorate, under the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, will lead this process, working closely with national and county-level institutions. The MRV system will support domestic reporting and feed into global frameworks such as the Biennial Transparency Reports required under the Paris Agreement.

What makes Kenya’s Second NDC particularly compelling is its effort to align climate action with national development. Recognising that climate change is an environmental challenge and a socio-economic threat, Kenya has crafted a plan that advances its Vision 2030 aspirations. Even though the Vision 2030 framework concludes just before this NDC’s implementation period, the new NDC is designed to be aligned with the next generation of national development plans. 

In conclusion, Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution is a comprehensive strategy that aims to turn climate risks into opportunities. It reflects a deep understanding of the country’s vulnerabilities, while showcasing leadership and responsibility on the global stage. The success of this plan, however, will depend on sustained political will, institutional capacity, and adequate international support. As climate change intensifies, Kenya’s approach offers a model for other developing nations seeking to balance development with environmental stewardship.