The November 27 by-elections have emerged as the first showdown between President William Ruto’s broad-based government and the United Opposition, stitched together by his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, ahead of the 2027 general elections.

This comes at a time of rapidly changing political alliances. For many analysts, the November 27 by-elections have become a national litmus test, pitting the broad-based government against a newly united opposition led by Gachagua and bolstered by Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, George Natembeya, Justin Muturi, among others.

The elections will be held on the same day for the Senate seat in Baringo County and for the National Assembly seats in Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere North, and Ugunja constituencies.

Additionally, there will be polls for members of county assemblies in Angata Nanyokie ward in Samburu County, Chemundu/Kapng’etuny ward in Nandi County, Chewani ward in Tana River County, Fafi ward in Garissa County, Kariobangi North ward in Nairobi City County, Kisa East ward in Kakamega County, Metkei ward in Elgeyo Marakwet County, and Mumbuni North ward in Machakos County.

Others include Narok town ward in Narok County, Purko ward in Kajiado County, Tembelio ward in Uasin Gishu County, Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya, and Ekerenyo wards in Nyamira County, Kabuchai/Cwele ward in Bungoma County, Lake Sone and Nanaam wards in Turkana County.

The seats have remained vacant for several months following the deaths, court nullifications, or the appointment of incumbents to other state positions.

According to Amnesty International Kenya, these by-elections could serve as the most important stress test of the country’s electoral system before 2027.

“By the end of November, Kenyans will be able to measure voter confidence in the process, the independence and professionalism of the electoral commission and police, the capacity of political parties to deploy agents, and the effectiveness of civic actors in observing and safeguarding electoral integrity,” Amnesty International Kenya said.

A few days ago, deadly clashes took place in Kasipul constituency, resulting in the death of two people and injuries to several others. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has since fined the two candidates in that constituency KSh1 million each after finding them culpable of incitement.

Furthermore, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) reported that its right to assemble had been violated on at least two occasions. Additionally, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua called for the arrest of those threatening him, to no avail. These and other concerns led the National Police Service (NPS) to issue a statement a few days ago, declaring a “zero-tolerance for violence or hate speech.”

President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party is expected to retain the senatorial seat in Baringo County. The race shifted last month (October) following former area Senator Gideon Moi’s withdrawal, following discussions with President Ruto. Moi’s Kenya African National Union (KANU) party subsequently agreed to join President Ruto’s broad-based government, paving the way for a smooth UDA victory. The by-election was broadly seen as Gideon’s potential political resurgence after three years in the wilderness, following his 2022 defeat to UDA’s Samuel Chepkonga.

In Mbeere North constituency, the campaign has intensified into a high-stakes political contest between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Gachagua.

Gachagua is rallying support for Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Kariuki Ndegwa, while Prof. Kindiki is backing UDA candidate Leonard Muriuki Wamuthende.

Gachagua argues that defeating the UDA candidate would send President Ruto a clear message that he has lost the support of a voter-rich region of Mt Kenya, which overwhelmingly backed him during the 2022 general election.

The parliamentary seat for Mbeere North constituency became vacant after Geoffrey Ruku assumed the role of Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes.

Both Deputy President Prof Kindiki and his predecessor, Gachagua, are aiming to strengthen their influence and assert dominance over the votes in the Mt. Kenya region.

In Ugunja constituency, ODM is poised for an easy victory in its own heartland. Its candidate, Moses Omondi, who is supported by the broad-based government, is favoured to succeed Opiyo Wandayi, who is currently serving as Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum.  However, in the Kasipul constituency, the Movement is expected to face a severe credibility test, as its candidate, Boyd Were, is locked in a tight race against independent contender Philip Aroko.

In Western Kenya, the Malava parliamentary seat is also another battleground between UDA and the United Opposition. On the UDA side, President Ruto’s confidant, Farouk Kibet, is leading the campaign for the broad-based government’s candidate, David Ndakwa. He is facing Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K).

To prevent an opposition split, DCP’s Edgar Busiega withdrew from the race and supported Panyako to strengthen unity within the opposition.