When President Donald Trump began imposing tariffs and launching a trade war against China around 2018, the United States was reacting to a widening trade deficit with the Asian country and growing concerns over its rising economic influence, particularly in manufacturing, technology, and global trade systems. In 2017,  the United States’ trade deficit in goods with China was approximately USD375 billion. This grew to around USD 419 billion in 2018, the largest amount the U.S. had with any country. China became the world’s largest exporter, accounting for about 13% of global exports. The U.S. remained a major importer and continued to lead in some high-tech sectors and services, but China dominated in manufacturing.

Upon his return to the presidency in 2025, Trump proceeded with plans to impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, regardless of origin, while threatening to escalate tariffs against China to approximately 60%, citing continued “unfair practices.” By doing this, he sidestepped World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, an institution many already see as toothless. The President even threatened to pull the U.S. out of the WTO, dismissing it as China’s puppet.  

Trump’s main man on trade matters at the time was Robert Lighthizer, who served as the U.S. Trade Representative between 2017 and 2021. Although he doesn’t currently hold any official position, Lighthizer is still seen as Trump’s go-to strategist on issues like tariffs, having clashed with the WTO when he represented the U.S. and pushed for America-first trade policies, effectively dismantling its dispute resolution function. Trump has threatened to withdraw from the WTO, a serious threat, given that he has already pulled the US out of other United Nations (UN) organisations, such as the WHO.

However, on Tuesday, Trump, who has property in Scotland, is descended from there. The President met with European leaders at Turnberry and signed a deal with Ursula von der Leyen for a 15% tariff, which is lower than the 30% and 50% he had earlier threatened, but higher than the 10%. In return for lower tariffs, certain strategic sectors are entirely exempted from the tariffs, such as the aircraft, semiconductor and critical chemicals sectors. Trump, in turn, secured investments for American energy, infrastructure and defence industries.

This new deal lays the groundwork for his ‘commercial diplomacy’, where other countries approach the U.S. with their investment deals in return for lower tariffs, with Japan and India having already set the stage for such offers. What does this all mean?  Nations are racing to avoid punitive tariffs by offering investment-for-access proposals. Seventy-five countries have already approached the US with such offers. The U.S. is using investment leverage to reshape global trade relations. Trump’s Turnberry deal is a blueprint for rebuilding U.S. hegemony.