Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s time in local politics is over for now, as his focus turns to his campaign for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson position.

Odinga has been a significant figure in Kenyan politics for decades. He is known for his advocacy for democracy, good governance, and economic reforms. He has played a critical role in shaping the country’s political landscape, and his exit from local politics will leave a substantial void in Kenya’s political arena.

Political analysts argue that his exit could prompt shifts in political dynamics, potentially influencing the strategies of both existing and emerging political leaders.

During the official unveiling of his candidacy as Kenya’s nominee for the Chairmanship of the AUC, Odinga termed it as a major impetus and milestone in his bid.

President William Ruto said Odinga is a celebrated statesman whose longevity in leadership has been sustained by an unrelenting devotion to democratic change as the foundation of sustainable freedom and prosperity.

President Ruto went on to state that Kenya has benefitted from progress, both on the broad stage of national governance and in the evolution of specific sectors, which is attributable to reforms championed by the patriotic league of indomitable visionaries like Odinga.

“He possesses the professional capacity and experience, a proven track record of transformative leadership and a wide experience of accomplishment at the national and regional levels,” President Ruto said.

Already, a succession battle to replace Odinga as the leader of the opposition has started.  

Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Co-Principal Kalonzo Musyoka declared himself the opposition leader following the launch of Odinga’s campaign for the AUC chairperson seat.

Musyoka convened a press conference coinciding with the State House launch in Nairobi, stating that Azimio will remain intact despite Odinga’s apparent alliance with President Ruto, which has attracted criticism within the coalition’s ranks.

“Yes, I am ready to be the leader of the official opposition. This is the team. You will see the opposition like never before. We may be light in numbers in Parliament, but outside, we have the people of Kenya,” the Wiper Party leader said.

Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) party leader Eugene Wamalwa endorsed Musyoka’s quest. “There is no vacuum in Azimio. Kalonzo is the second highest-ranking member. He takes over,” Wamalwa stated.   

Fear of a voiceless opposition

Since President Ruto named opposition figures to the Cabinet in July, there has been fear that the opposition will become voiceless following Odinga’s exit from the local political scene.

Two weeks ago, Narc-Kenya wrote to the Registrar of Political Parties about its intentions to withdraw from the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition, saying its continued stay in the alliance is no longer tenable. Narc-Kenya Party leader Martha Karua was Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 presidential election.

On the other hand, Odinga’s allies in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have accused some of their partners in Azimio of disrespecting the coalition leader. ODM has pointed the accusing finger at the Jubilee Party led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the Wiper Party led by Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K led by Eugene Wamalwa, KANU led by Gideon Moi, and the Party of National Unity (PNU) led by Peter Munya. The parties have accused ODM of betraying the coalition by working with President Ruto.

ODM Deputy Leader Godfrey Osotsi and National Chairperson Gladys Wanga are on record saying that the party remains the principal partner in the opposition, adding that no amount of intimidation or blackmail will make them submit.

“On what basis are they saying that we joined the government? ODM has no written agreement with the Kenya Kwanza government. Isn’t this drama?” Mr Osotsi asked. “We will not be pushed from the coalition by our junior partners.”

Wanga, who is also the Governor of Homabay County, said no agreement between ODM and Kenya Kwanza makes the two joint partners in government.

The ODM party’s top leaders who have joined the government are former deputy party leaders Ali Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former National Chairman John Mbadi, former Secretary for Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, and former member of the party’s National Elections Coordinating Committee Beatrice Askul.  

Joho joined the government as the Cabinet Secretary for Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs and Mbadi as the National Treasury and Economic Planning Cabinet Secretary. Oparanya became the Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Development Cabinet Secretary, Wandayi the Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary, and Askul the East African Community Affairs and Regional Development Cabinet Secretary.

Additionally, President Ruto is taking advantage of the recent inclusion of these top ODM leaders in his government and the unveiling of Odinga as Kenya’s candidate to the AUC to make inroads in Azimio strongholds.

So far, Dr. Ruto has been on political engagements in Migori, Homa Bay, Siaya and Kisumu counties, where he dangled development projects and attended homecoming events for National Treasury CS Mbadi and his Energy and Petroleum colleague Wandayi.

Moreover, over the weekend, the President’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM signalled plans for a possible merger or coalition ahead of the 2027 general elections. Leaders from the two parties, speaking during a thanksgiving ceremony of Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development CS Oparanya, said they would work together for the country’s sake.

Fear dismissed

Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua has dismissed fears that the opposition will become voiceless following Odinga’s exit from the local political scene.

Karua said she would stand with like-minded Kenyans to fight what she termed as ‘oppression’ by President Ruto and the ruling Kenya Kwanza alliance. She said that even though she wished Odinga well in his bid for the AUC chairmanship, that would not change her stance on pointing out violations of the law and the Constitution by the government.

“The position does not change. He (Odinga) remains here; we remain the voice. He goes, we still play our role. Being in the Opposition is not predicated on the presence or absence of our brother. It is a duty we take up seriously,” said Karua.

Musyoka also announced that Azimio would set up its shadow Cabinet in the coming days. The cabinet will encompass Kenyans of all age groups, including Gen Z, who have recently demonstrated against the government.

The Azimio ministerial team will be tasked with shadowing and keeping President Ruto’s Cabinet in check and accountable. “It will not be business as usual. We will not allow our country to become a banana republic. We are a multiparty democracy. The struggle continues, no retreat, no surrender!” said Musyoka.