The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has long been associated with Raila Odinga’s unwavering fight for democratic reforms, social justice, and opposition to entrenched power structures in Kenya. However, following Raila’s passing in late 2025, the party finds itself at a crossroads, caught between preserving his legacy and adapting to a rapidly changing political landscape. 

At the centre of this turmoil is Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter and an East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP. She has boldly challenged the interim leadership led by her uncle, Dr. Oburu Oginga. Winnie has labelled the transition process as “unconstitutional”, “secretive”, and “fraught with procedural flaws”. She is demanding an immediate National Delegates Convention (NDC) to legitimise any permanent leadership changes. 

Her stance not only highlights deep generational divisions within the party but also raises fundamental questions about ODM’s ideological future. Will it remain a stronghold of radical opposition, or will it shift toward pragmatic alliances with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA)? 

This internal conflict arises at a critical time for Kenya’s opposition. With the 2027 general elections approaching, ODM’s unity, or lack thereof, could determine the fate of the broader opposition and its ability to present a credible challenge to Ruto’s incumbency. 

Winnie’s Challenge and the Interim Leadership Dispute 

The controversy ignited earlier this month when Winnie took to public platforms, including a fiery rally in Kibra and interviews on national media, to decry what she described as a rushed and opaque handover of power. 

“My father never intended for ODM to be handed over in secret meetings,” she stated in an interview with Citizen TV. “Oburu is only acting leader until an NDC ratifies it… anything else undermines the party’s constitution and the will of our members.” 

Winnie’s demands centre on convening an NDC, a body comprising delegates from across ODM’s strongholds, to ensure a democratic transition rather than “family-imposed” decisions. 

Dr. Oginga, Raila’s elder brother and a veteran politician, has defended the interim arrangement as a necessary stabilising measure amid grief and uncertainty. In a January 20 statement via ODM’s official channels, he emphasised continuity, arguing, “We are honouring Baba’s vision by keeping the party united against external pressures. Calls for hasty conventions risk dividing us further.” 

However, critics within the party, including youthful members and some county assembly representatives, have echoed Winnie’s concerns, pointing to alleged intimidation tactics against dissenters. Reports from Nairobi County Assembly suggest factional splits, with pro-Winnie groups boycotting sessions in protest. 

It is emerging that this is not just a family spat; it is a microcosm of ODM’s historical tensions. Founded in 2005 as a vehicle for Raila’s presidential ambitions, the party has weathered defections, mergers, and ideological shifts, from the fiery anti-establishment rhetoric of the 2007 elections to the more conciliatory “handshake” with Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018. 

Winnie’s intervention positions her as the guardian of the party’s “soul”, invoking Raila’s “10-Point Agenda” on issues like devolution, anti-corruption, and equitable resource distribution. The 10-Point Agenda was put together following Raila’s handshake in early 2025, where he agreed to work with Ruto through an ODM-UDA cooperation agreement. 

Generational Divide and the NDC Gamble 

At its core, the leadership battle reflects a generational divide that has been simmering in ODM for years. Winnie, at 35, represents a younger cadre of politicians eager to inject fresh energy into the party. Her background, educated abroad, with experience in diplomacy and advocacy, contrasts sharply with the old guard’s roots in Kenya’s independence-era struggles. Supporters argue that her leadership could attract millennials and Gen Z voters, who were instrumental in the 2024 protests against economic inequality but felt alienated by ODM’s perceived elitism. 

Yet, the old guard, including figures like Oburu and National Executive Council (NEC) members, counters that experience is irreplaceable in navigating Kenya’s cutthroat political arena. This echoes similar transitions in other Kenyan parties, as was witnessed with FORD, the original ODM and NARC. 

Winnie’s push for an NDC could democratise the process, but it also carries risks. Historical precedents, such as the chaotic 2013 and 2017 ODM primaries, show how conventions can exacerbate divisions if not managed carefully. If Winnie prevails, it might signal a broader renewal, empowering women and youth in leadership roles, a nod to Raila’s advocacy for gender parity. However, failure could marginalise her, reinforcing perceptions of dynastic entitlement. 

Ideological Stakes 

Beyond personalities, the dispute hinges on ODM’s ideological direction. Winnie has been vocal about preserving the party’s reformist ethos, warning against “secret alignments” with UDA. “Raila never hinted at merging fully with the ruling side; he fought for the people, not for positions,” she asserted at the Kibra rally. This stance resonates with ODM’s base in Nyanza, Nairobi slums, and Western Kenya, where voters view any UDA pact as a betrayal of anti-establishment principles. 

Conversely, whispers within the party suggest the old guard favours pragmatism, especially amid economic challenges like high inflation and youth unemployment. They see a potential UDA-ODM deal as a means to secure more Cabinet positions and development funds, stabilising ODM’s influence. However, many opine that such alliances dilute ideology, as happened with the Uhuru-Raila handshake and the Ruto-Raila one, which pacified the opposition but alienated core supporters. 

The ideological debate ties into Raila’s complex legacy. A lifelong opposition leader who nonetheless engaged in expedient coalitions. Winnie’s narrative frames her as the true heir, but detractors question whether her EALA role, seen by some as a “soft landing”, equips her for the gritty realities of party management. 

ODM’s infighting has ripple effects on the opposition landscape. A unified ODM under pragmatic leadership might bolster a grand alliance against Ruto, leveraging its strongholds to mount a strong presidential bid. But a prolonged battle could lead to defections, weakening turnout in key regions like Nyanza, which accounts for over 15 per cent of the national vote. 

For 2027, this drama plays into Ruto’s hands. His administration has adeptly exploited opposition disunity, as seen in recent by-elections where UDA swept seats amid opposition fractures. Voter disillusionment is palpable. A mid-January Infotrak poll showed 62 per cent of ODM supporters favouring ideological purity over coalitions, yet 45 per cent worried about the party’s survival without Raila. 

Broader risks include deepened ethnic mobilisation, with Luo community leaders urging unity to avoid marginalisation. However, a renewed ODM could galvanise youth-led movements, blending digital activism with grassroots organising. 

The battle for ODM’s leadership is more than a succession crisis; it is a litmus test for Kenya’s multi-party democracy. Winnie Odinga’s challenge offers a chance for ideological rejuvenation, but it demands careful navigation to avoid fractures within the family and the party.  

As calls for an NDC grow, stakeholders must prioritise transparency and inclusivity to honour Raila’s vision. For now, all eyes are on the Odinga family and ODM’s base; their choice to rally for ideological renewal or succumb to entrenched division will be the ultimate measure of the party’s post-Raila future.