“Hold your horses; the long rains have not yet started,” cautioned Dr. David Gikungu, the Director General of Kenya Meteorological Department, in a recent interview. 

Despite sporadic showers in parts of the country, Dr. Gikungu clarified that these were precursors, with the long rains expected to begin in late March or early April. This forecast aligns with historical trends, where Kenya experiences its primary rainfall season between March and May. However, anticipating long rains brings renewed concerns over severe flooding, a persistent challenge that has devastated livelihoods, displaced communities, and strained economic growth in previous years. 

Flooding in Kenya has historically led to substantial economic losses, affecting various sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure, and trade. According to the World Bank (2021), extreme weather events cost Kenya approximately 2.4% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually. The agriculture sector, which contributes nearly 30% of the country’s GDP, is among the hardest hit. Heavy rains destroy crops, wash away fertile soil, and flood vast tracts of farmland, leading to food shortages and price spikes. 

In urban areas, flooding disrupts businesses by damaging commercial properties and cutting off essential supply chains. Nairobi, for instance, experiences recurrent floods that paralyse transport networks, delaying the delivery of goods and services. The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) has noted that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) suffer significant financial setbacks during floods due to inventory losses and reduced customer access to flooded business premises. 

Kenya’s infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to flooding, with roads, bridges, and drainage systems suffering extensive damage during heavy rains. The Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) has reported that major highways such as the Mai Mahiu—Narok Road and key access roads in Western Kenya are often rendered impassable due to floodwaters, leading to significant economic and logistical disruptions. 

Public utilities, including electricity and water supply systems, are also affected. Just the other day, power went out the entire night after light rain. Formal and informal settlements in cities such as Nairobi and Kisumu bear the brunt of poor drainage systems, with flash floods displacing thousands and exacerbating health risks. Case in point, the 2020 floods caused power outages in several counties as substations were submerged, while water treatment plants were overwhelmed, leading to contamination and a rise in waterborne diseases. 

Flooding has severe public health implications, particularly in densely populated and low-income areas. Stagnant water becomes a breeding ground for mosquitoes, increasing the risk of malaria outbreaks. Additionally, contaminated water sources contribute to cholera and typhoid infections, placing immense pressure on the healthcare system. Amid last year’s heavy downpour, the Ministry of Health reported spikes in waterborne diseases, such as cholera outbreaks, with hospitals struggling to accommodate the rising number of patients. 

The loss of homes and personal belongings also deepens poverty levels. Many displaced families are forced to seek refuge in overcrowded temporary shelters where access to food, clean water and medical care is often inadequate. Women and children, in particular, face heightened vulnerabilities, including exposure to gender-based violence in emergency shelters. 

Flooding during Kenya’s long rains poses significant socio-economic challenges, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, public health and livelihoods. While flooding remains a recurring challenge, strategic policy interventions and improved disaster preparedness can significantly mitigate its impact. 

• The government should invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, prioritising the construction of better drainage systems, floods-resistant roads, and reinforced bridges. It should implement green infrastructure solutions such as permeable pavements and urban wetlands that help reduce flooding in cities. 
• We need to strengthen Kenya’s early warning systems as a country, which can enhance preparedness among vulnerable communities. The Kenya Meteorological Department should work closely with the media and national and county governments to disseminate timely weather alerts and flood warnings. 
• Kenyans should leverage financial support and insurance schemes. Establishing a national disaster relief fund and encouraging the adoption of weather-indexed insurance for farmers can help cushion affected communities from economic shocks. 
• Enforcing zoning regulations and discouraging construction in flood-prone areas can prevent future disasters. Additionally, afforestation and reforestation programmes should be expanded to improve soil absorption and reduce erosion.