With seven months remaining until the African Union Commission (AUC) elections in February 2025, the race to succeed Moussa Faki of Chad, whose term ends next year, is underway. The new AUC Chairperson will be chosen during the 38th AU Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The Chairperson is elected by the Assembly for a four-year term, renewable once. 

Regions

The African Union is divided into five regions: Southern, Central, Eastern, Western, and Northern Africa. According to AU rules established in 2018, the position of AUC Chairperson rotates among these regions to ensure fairness based on regional representation, gender, merit, and inter-regional balance. Since Central, Southern, and Western regions have already had their turn since 2002, it is now time for the Eastern and Northern regions. For the AUC chairperson position, opposition leader Raila Odinga will go head-to-head with Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Anil Gayan of Mauritius, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. The gold medallist must secure 66 per cent of the votes or at least 32 countries.

Elections and voting

The election for the chairperson is conducted in accordance with Rules 38 and 42 of the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly and the Executive Council, Statutes of the Commission, and Rules of Procedure of the Permanent Representatives Committee.

Rule 38:

Rule 38 explains how the election of the Commission chairperson and Deputy shall be conducted. The Chairperson of the Commission and their Deputy will be elected by the Assembly through a secret ballot with a two-thirds majority of Member States eligible to vote. Candidacies for these positions are circulated to Member States at least three months before the election, and the Chairperson and Deputy cannot come from the same region. 

Rule 42:

Rule 42 is on the voting procedure for the election of the members of the Commission. In an election for the Chairperson or Deputy Chairperson of the Commission, voting continues until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority. If no candidate wins after three rounds, the next round is limited to the two candidates with the most votes. If neither secures a majority after three more rounds, the candidate with fewer votes withdraws. If only two candidates are running and neither gets a majority after three rounds, the candidate with fewer votes withdraws, and the election continues. If a single remaining candidate or the only candidate fails to get a two-thirds majority, the election is suspended. In such cases, the Deputy Chairperson temporarily takes over as Chairperson, or the most senior Commissioner acts as Deputy until new elections are held.

Conclusion

Although four Eastern African countries are contesting the post, critics believe the real battle is between Djibouti’s candidate, Mahmoud Youssouf, and Odinga. Besides having a long career as Foreign Minister, Youssouf is noted for being younger than the other candidates. This, they argue, highlights a generational clash amidst a continent-wide youth-led movement. Religion also plays a role, as Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti, along with the entire North African region of 17 countries, are Arab-speaking members of the League of Arab States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Another factor is the Anglo-Francophone divide, with Mauritius, Djibouti, and Madagascar being Francophone, similar to 17 other countries in Eastern, Western, Northern, and Central Africa. Additionally, Western influence and the growing presence of emerging powers like Russia and China could significantly impact the election’s outcome.

The stage is set for a high-stakes battle for the AUC Chairpersonship, with various factors shaping the election dynamics—from generational shifts and regional alliances to linguistic divides and external influences. As candidates gear up for the February 2025 showdown, the outcome will not only reflect the political landscape within the African Union but also signal how the continent navigates its complex identity and global partnerships in the years to come. All eyes are on Addis Ababa, where the future of Africa’s leadership will be decided.