The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Kenya and the United Kingdom (UK), which took effect in March 2021, marked a significant step in trade relations following Brexit. Kenya, one of the major exporters of fresh produce like tea, flowers, vegetables, and fruits to the UK, enjoys duty-free and quota-free access to the UK market under this agreement. In return, Kenya committed to a phased liberalisation of UK goods while retaining tariffs on some sensitive items. However, this bilateral arrangement may soon expand as more East African Community (EAC) countries consider joining the agreement as a bloc. Through a decision by the Sectoral Council for Trade, Investments, Finance and Industry, the EAC has opened an instruction to the Secretary-General to begin an exploration of talks for the establishment of an EAC-wide Economic Partnership Agreement with the UK.

The move to have more EAC countries join the Kenya-UK EPA would lead to the harmonisation of tariffs on goods from the UK across the region. This would mean that all EAC member states would adopt uniform tariff rates on imports from the UK. This harmonisation can strengthen regional integration within the EAC, enhancing its position as a collective trade partner on the global stage. When countries within a trade bloc align their external trade policies, they can negotiate from a position of strength, attracting more favourable terms from trade partners. A harmonised approach will also reduce trade tensions between Kenya and other EAC member states, which have arisen as a result of  Kenya setting different tariffs than the rest.

With more EAC countries joining the EPA, the entire region could benefit from expanded access to the UK market. The EPA allows for duty-free and quota-free access for goods exported to the UK, which would benefit countries like Uganda and Tanzania that have similar agricultural and industrial profiles to Kenya. This can open up new opportunities for exports such as coffee, textiles, fish, and minerals, potentially boosting income for farmers, manufacturers, and traders across the region. 

Moreover, joining the EPA as a bloc would encourage cross-border trade within the EAC by providing a standardised framework for the export of goods. Promoting intra-regional cooperation and specialisation could create new value chains and increase the competitiveness of EAC products in the UK market.

However, other EAC member states joining the Kenya – UK EPA is not without challenges for Kenya. The expanded access to the UK market for other EAC countries means that all member states that join the EPA could increase their exports, leading to more competition within the region. This could create a scenario where Kenya, which currently benefits from its existing bilateral agreement with the UK, sees its competitive edge reduced as other countries start to capture a portion of the market share. With more EAC countries joining the EPA, Kenyan goods will face increased competition in the UK market. 

Countries like Uganda and Tanzania have agricultural and industrial profiles similar to Kenya’s, producing and exporting comparable goods such as coffee, tea, flowers, textiles, fish, and minerals. If these countries gain duty-free and quota-free access to the UK market under the EPA, they will directly compete with Kenyan goods. With more countries exporting similar goods to the UK, there could be increased price competition. Kenyan exporters might need to lower their prices to remain competitive, which could impact profit margins. In such a competitive environment, Kenyan goods will need to differentiate themselves through quality, branding, and enhanced sustainability value chains to maintain their competitive advantage. 

The potential accession of more EAC countries to the Kenya-UK EPA represents a significant opportunity to enhance regional integration and boost economic opportunities across East Africa. However, careful planning and negotiation are needed to address concerns around local industry protection and to ensure a balanced approach that benefits all member states. A successful, harmonised EAC approach to the EPA could pave the way for a stronger, more united regional bloc capable of negotiating more favourable trade deals on the global stage.