As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its expiry on September 30, 2025, the Kenyan government is walking a tightrope between deepening its ties with China and a bid to secure its future with the United States.

On August 20, the Kenyan government and the U.S. agreed to begin negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement between the two nations, which enjoy a longstanding strategic relationship. This followed a meeting between a Kenyan delegation led by Lee Kinyanjui, Cabinet Secretary for Investments, Trade, and Industry, and the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Ambassador Jamieson Greer, in Washington, D.C..

Kenya is deeply interested in the commencement of formal negotiations with the United States government. A reciprocal trade agreement is crucial for securing long-term access to the U.S. market for Kenyan products and will provide the stability needed to unlock new investments,” CS Kinyanjui said, adding, “A number of U.S. firms have already expressed strong interest in establishing or expanding their operations in Kenya. This framework will be a key enabler for that growth.” 

This comes at a sensitive time as suspicions simmer in Washington, D.C., over Kenya’s outreach to Beijing, China, and President William Ruto’s claims that the two nations are “co-architects of a new world order”. These remarks, made during a four-day state visit to China in April, are raising eyebrows in Washington. A key Republican senator questioned this statement as Kenya recently signed a one-year USD 2.1 million pact with a Trump-aligned firm, Continental Strategy. From this, one might reasonably believe that this partnership reflects Kenya’s interests and that the U.S. government is Kenya’s preferred military partner.

Continental Strategy is a government relations firm with offices in Washington, D.C., Tallahassee, Miami, Jacksonville, and Latin America. It has close ties to the Donald Trump administration.  

The company’s founder, Carlos Trujillo, who leads the Kenya team, served in the first Trump administration as ambassador to the Organisation of American States.  He was also a Trump campaign surrogate, working on outreach to Latino voters during the 2024 presidential campaign.

The firm’s managing partner, Alberto Martinez, served as Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s chief of staff when Rubio was still a Senator. Additionally, Trump’s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles’s daughter, Katie, is also a partner at the firm. However, she is not a registered foreign agent for Kenya.

The Kenyan government’s outreach campaign may already be making an impact following Secretary Rubio’s call with President Ruto.

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Kenyan President William Ruto today to commend Kenya’s continued leadership and ongoing efforts to restore peace and security in Haiti. They reaffirmed our strategic partnership and discussed commercial opportunities to further strengthen economic cooperation between the United States and Kenya,” Principal Deputy Spokesperson for U.S. Department of State Tommy Pigott said on August 19.

The U.S. is expected to reveal its stance on funding for the Haiti mission in the upcoming weeks, prior to the expiry of the mission’s mandate in October.

In June, the Kenyan government requested that the United Nations Security Council expedite the creation of a United Nations Support Office in Haiti to provide logistical and operational assistance for the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. This was among the recommendations earlier made by the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, to sustain the mission by covering accommodation, medical services, mobility, and IT requirements.

Currently, Kenya has 991 police officers deployed in Haiti, accounting for 39.6 per cent of the planned 2,500-strong force, which remains under-equipped and without sufficient operational capacity.

Analysts view the ongoing developments as a shift from quiet diplomacy to strategic repositioning, highlighting how geopolitics is infiltrating trade. They also point out that, for Kenya, the challenge is to extract economic advantage without alienating either superpowers (the U.S. and China), a balancing act that is becoming harder as the U.S.-China competition intensifies.