Solar Maximum 2024: Are we on the brink of an Internet apocalypse?
So, in case you are unaware, we are currently in solar cycle 25, which commenced in December 2019. But there is nothing too predictable about a solar cycle, which on average lasts 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field propels a solar cycle. The sun, like the earth, has a magnetic field characterised by a north and south pole, and every 11 years or so (could actually range from 8 to 14 years), these two poles undergo a reversal so that the south pole becomes the north pole and vice versa. This flip influences the activity on the face of the sun, which is indicated by sunspots on the face of the sun. Sunspots are dark patches that appear on the face of the sun akin to freckles on a human face, enduring for hours to days and harbouring a magnetic field about 2500 times stronger than Earth’s. There is a lot of physics explaining what happens to create a sunspot, but we will not go into that in this article.
The initiation of a solar cycle marks a Solar Minimum, featuring the fewest sunspots, while a Solar Maximum marks the cycle’s culmination with the greatest number of sunspots. Solar cycles have been recorded since 1755, correlating with the observation of sunspots. Solar Maxima witnessed heightened solar activities, including solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). To understand the complicated phenomena that occur on the sun and the accompanying terms, one has to understand that our sun is an average-sized star, also in terms of brightness and temperature and is made up of hydrogen and helium. The outer surface of the sun is known as corona and consists of extremely high temperatures.
Solar Weather
The elevated temperatures in the sun’s atmosphere disintegrate hydrogen and helium atoms into electrons and protons, forming a plasma that flows in alignment with the sun’s magnetic field. Additionally, these high temperatures empower the plasma to overcome the sun’s gravitational pull, propelling it outward in all directions at speeds reaching 400 km/s, creating the phenomenon known as solar wind.
The solar wind permeates our solar system like a gentle rain, creating a distinct solar weather pattern. Much like terrestrial weather systems where accumulations lead to storms and hurricanes, the sun experiences analogous phenomena. Solar flares manifest when stored energy in magnetic fields, typically located just above sunspots, is unleashed. The ensuing surge of radiation hurtles from the sun at the speed of light, gathering up protons from the solar wind and giving rise to a solar-proton storm. Classified by brightness in X-ray wavelengths, solar flares range from C-class (small) to M-class (medium), and the formidable X-Class, which holds the potential to impact life on Earth by triggering radio blackouts and influencing the upper atmosphere through radiation storms.
CMEs on the other hand, are huge bubbles of gas intertwined with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the sun at speeds of 9 million Km/hr over the course of several hours. Some can be accompanied by solar flares or not.
When CMEs hit the earth, nothing bad happens because the earth’s exosphere absorbs the solar storm or is deflected by the earth’s geomagnetic field into the north and south poles. This is why we see the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) in the pole regions because the solar wind is interacting with our atmosphere.
The Carrington Event
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) exhibit varying intensities, with potent ones comparable to hurricanes occurring approximately once or twice in a century. The renowned Carrington event of 1859, observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, stands out as one such powerful CME. At the time when telegraphs were the primary means of communication, Carrington witnessed a flash of light, later identified as a CME. Earth experienced the repercussions a day later, manifesting as aurora borealis visible as far south as Mexico and the Caribbean. In the northern regions, the aurora borealis was so luminous that it misled campers and birds into believing it was dawn, leading to disruptions in the Telegraph network. These celestial occurrences leave traces in trees and ice sheets, serving as indicators of historical events and referred to as Miyake events by scientists.
Solar Cycle 25
At the onset of this Solar Cycle, expectations leaned towards a mild phase due to the generally subdued nature of Cycle 24. However, a notable event occurred in July 2012 when a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) accompanied by an X-class solar flare narrowly missed Earth by nine days. This fortunate escape was attributed to the specific orientation of the CME-spewing region, which was not facing Earth. The CME propelled at high speeds facilitated by an earlier, smaller CME clearing its path, led to speculations about the potential devastation had it struck Earth at a more direct angle. Such concerns are not unfounded, given the historical precedent of a geomagnetic storm in 1989 that disrupted the Quebec power grid for 14 hours and also caused transformer failures in North America and Europe.
Solar Maximum 2024
Initially anticipated in 2025, the Solar Maximum is now projected to take place between January and October 2024, with an estimated peak of 115 sunspots. An additional celestial event, a solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, will provide eclipse chasers with an opportunity to scrutinise the sun’s corona. Considering the dual peaks observed during Solar Cycle 24, which contributed to the noteworthy July 2012 event, it’s no surprise that speculation is arising once again that a similar solar storm would lead to an internet shutdown worldwide. The majority of global internet traffic relies on undersea fibre optic cables, which remain unaffected by geomagnetic activity. However, the repeaters employed for signal amplification are crafted from copper, making them susceptible to such storms. Nevertheless, these repeaters exhibit resilience, with the capacity to absorb fluctuations reaching up to 6000 volts induced by heightened geomagnetic activity. In the 1989 event, fluctuations reached approximately 300 volts above the nominal power of the cable.
The CME would, therefore have to be very powerful to cause a global internet shutdown. We must not, however, discount the fact that in times of solar activity, satellites have been seen to fall in elevation or altogether, pointing to the fact that a huge CME could throw down satellites from space. In 2022, a number of Elon Musk’s Starlink Satellites fell back to earth due to geomagnetic storms, with the American Federal Aviation Administration warning that falling debris from these satellites could start injuring or killing people. GPS would also be affected while astronauts and airline staff would be exposed to more radiation.
Rumours have, therefore, been rife on the internet that NASA has issued warnings of an internet Apocalypse, but this is not true. The information stems from a 2021 study presented at a communications conference whose author has since expressed regret using the term ‘internet apocalypse.’
Perhaps what the heightened interest draws attention to is how woefully inadequate the current infrastructure is to withstand a solar storm of a large magnitude. The ramifications for global supply chains, transportation and provision of essential services are simply unthinkable and would return us to a world before 1983, and if the power grid is affected, we will be transported to a world before 1752. It is something to think about.