The October 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas, the Sunni Islamist political and military organisation governing the Gaza Strip of the Palestinian territories, has united African leaders in condemning the violence, but they remain deeply divided on who to blame. 

Globally, several countries have reacted to the war differently. Some have expressed their unequivocal condemnation of Hamas and explicitly decried its tactics as terrorism, others have placed responsibility on Israel for the attacks, and others have called for an immediate de-escalation of violence.

Experts say African countries may not suffer deaths, but the burden could come in the form of heightened security risks, higher costs of importation, and geopolitical pressure on their stands.

A policy analysis report titled “International Reactions to Hamas Attack on Israel” was released on October 11 by the Washington Institute for New East Policy. This think tank, based in Washington D.C., is pro-Israel and focuses on the foreign policy of the United States (US) in the Near East. The report states that in the Middle East and North Africa, a slim majority condemned all violence. Additionally, there was an almost equal number either condemning Israel or offering full-throated support to Hamas.

The report further says the North American and European countries overwhelmingly issued statements in strong support of Israel and its right to defend itself. “Very few issued only a general condemnation of all violence or made no statement.” The majority of Latin American countries issued statements either in support of Israel or condemning all violence, with the notable exception of Belize, Colombia, and Venezuela. 

Australia and New Zealand offered strong support to Israel, with all other Oceanic countries abstaining from public comment. Most Asian nations condemned violence generally, with India, Georgia, Japan, Singapore, Nepal, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand standing out with their explicit support for Israel and North Korea condemning Israel’s aggression.

According to the report, while most of sub-Saharan Africa did not issue a public statement, Kenya, Ghana, and Togo stood out with particularly vociferous criticism of Hamas.  

President William Ruto on X (formerly Twitter) said, “Kenya joins the rest of the world in solidarity with the State of Israel and unequivocally condemns terrorism and attacks on innocent civilians in the country. Kenya strongly maintains that there exists no justification whatsoever for terrorism, which constitutes a serious threat to international peace and security. All acts of terrorism and violent extremism are abhorrent, criminal, and unjustifiable, regardless of the perpetrator, or their motivations.” 

The President added that in consideration of the complex and delicate context of the security situation in Israel-Palestine, Kenya also made a call for the de-escalation of violence and urged all parties to restrain from further military action, given its potential to intensify carnage and the suffering of innocent civilians, and to trigger heightened tension in the region and beyond. Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs condemned, in the strongest terms possible, what it called an “unprovoked attack by Hamas militants on the people of Israel.”  

Security

Security analysts say that Al-Shabaab and Hamas have had no direct relations yet but could still target East African installations for opportunistic attacks and raise their profile.   

Some online media outlets reported Al-Shabaab had expressed jubilation for the Hamas-led invasion of Israel. 

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), which is a non-profit, non-partisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security reported that this is not the first time that Al-Shabaab has inserted itself into the Israel-Palestine conflict. For instance, during Al-Qaeda’s “Jerusalem Will Never Be Judaized” campaign, announced in 2019 after then-US President Donald Trump decided to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Al-Shabaab conducted a series of high-profile raids in this name. 

The January 2019 attack on the DusitD2 hotel in Nairobi, the September 2019 assault on a US airfield in Baledogle, Somalia, and the January 2020 attack on a US base in Manda Bay, Kenya, were all claimed as part of this campaign. 

In the past, Kenya has also faced the wrath of Palestine militants for offering support to Israel. In 2002, an Israel-owned hotel in Mombasa was attacked by Al-Qaeda agents, and in another incident, rockets were launched at an Israeli airline near Mombasa, but they missed. However, the airline stopped flights to Kenya to date, citing security concerns. 

Some security analysts argue that the best thing for Kenya would have been to keep a low profile, because Kenya is a proponent of peace, without aligning with any side. 

Already, the US Embassy in Nairobi has issued a security alert over suspected terrorist attacks in Nairobi and other parts of the country, cautioning its citizens to exercise vigilance when visiting recreational centres and other crowded places frequented by foreigners and tourists. The American Embassy further notes that areas such as hotels, embassies, restaurants, malls and markets, schools, police stations and places of worship could also risk attack by terrorist groups. 

Kenya’s position on the Israel-Palestine conflict

Kenya has an official policy that calls for a two-state solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict, based on the maps that distinguished their territories as of 1967. 

However, within the United Nations forums, the country under former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime supported the Palestinian course by backing the UN resolutions that were viewed by Israel as unfavourable, including publicly condemning Israel at the United Nations Security Council for human rights violations in occupied Palestine. This, however, seems to be changing if recent events at the UN bodies are something to go by. 

For instance, on November 10, 2022, during the fourth committee, Kenya voted in favour of Palestine’s request to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to issue an advisory opinion relating to Israel’s occupation of Palestine territory. 

But a month later, Kenya backtracked at the General Assembly and voted against Palestine’s request to have the ICJ give an opinion on the legal consequences of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories. This move was widely condemned by foreign policy commentators. 

When Israel sought to be readmitted to the African Union (AU) on observer status in February 2023, Kenya did not object to this request, though the AU issued one of the toughest commentaries on Israel’s alleged mistreatment of Palestinians. 

Economic interests 

President Ruto’s administration which is riding on an economic-focused manifesto has signaled a shift from the East to the West policy, in terms of foreign policy. In May, President Ruto visited Israel and met with President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu where bilateral agreements were signed. 

During the visit, President Herzog appreciated President Ruto’s friendship in international forums, perhaps referring to Kenya’s change of voting policy at the global bodies. President Ruto on his part praised the relations noting that they share a longstanding joint history. 

Still in May, Kenya made a shocking move when it abstained from a World Health Organisation (WHO) vote on health conditions in occupied Palestine. Kenya abstained at the end of the draft bill discussions on the health conditions in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem and the occupied Syrian Golan. The special debate took place during the 76th World Health Assembly and singled out Israel as a violator of health rights.  

The resolution had been tabled by the Syrian and Palestinian delegations requiring the global health body to hold the same debate next year during the 77th World Health Assembly and to prepare another report on the health conditions in the occupied Palestinian territory. This was the only agenda item at the assembly focusing on a specific country. 

Locally, Kenya has benefited a lot from the good relationship especially in the agriculture sector as Israel has been assisting Kenya to become resilient in food production and supply even in unprecedented and challenging times. Kenya has also gained a great deal economically from other Israel-friendly states such as the US by maintaining cordial ties with Israel.