Since 1997, Raila Odinga has vied for the presidency – and lost – four more times (2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022). He has faced betrayals and managed to navigate political storms that would have terminated the political career of many Kenyan leaders. However, for the veteran politician, every setback seems to have been setting up a new battle for his political career.

His latest downfall in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson elections on February 15 marked another significant moment in his political career. His latest political association with President William Ruto has sparked debate among his supporters and critics. Some view this as a strategic move to influence governance, while others perceive it as a decamp from his political ideologies. 

Odinga’s announcement that he will avail himself whenever his counsel and contribution are needed and that he will soon announce his next political move is a clear indication that he is far from calling it a day.

“We are available to help the continent of Africa, but more importantly, we are also available for Kenya. I’m back home. I’m going to meet with my friends, my supporters,” he said.

He added, “I am going to consult widely on what’s going on, and in due course, we will announce our way forward. I just want to say, watch this space. I will be talking again.”

On Monday, February 24, at State House, Mombasa, President Ruto and Odinga said they would announce their next move sooner rather than expected. The meeting was attended by Odinga’s trusted allies – his elder brother Oburu Odinga, Suna East Member of Parliament (MP) Junet Mohamed, Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, and lawyer Paul Mwangi.

The President affirmed that he would work with Odinga to achieve the government’s development agenda. 

Politicians are now courting Odinga

On the other hand, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua said “the door is not closed” to him working with Odinga to strengthen efforts to oust President Ruto in 2027.

In an interview with Kamba radio stations on Wednesday, when asked whether he was open to having Odinga in his new-found alliance, he said, “I do not understand Odinga’s intentions; it is his choice, depending on whether he wants to be with Ruto and water down his political legacy or on the side of liberating this country.” 

Gachagua added that Odinga had the choice to decide which side of history he would like to be on. 

However, two nights before, in another interview with KTN, Gachagua said Mt Kenya voters are ready to overwhelmingly back Odinga to unseat President Ruto in 2027. He claimed that he is also in constant consultation with former President Uhuru Kenyatta on the matter, alleging that only Odinga was reluctant.

Gachagua stated that he is crafting an anti-Ruto alliance for 2027. He listed himself, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-Kenya party leader Eugene Wamalwa, Busia County Senator Okiya Omtatah, Trans Nzoia County Governor George Natembeya, and Odinga as potential flagbearers.

Additionally, some of President Ruto’s allies are calling for the amendment of the Constitution to create the position of Prime Minister, a role which they propose Odinga should be awarded. Nandi County Senator Samson Cherargei and Belgut MP Nelson Koech are also proposing that Odinga be fully accommodated in government.

“We must now fully implement the NADCO Report by amending the 2010 Constitution to create the office of Prime Minister and allow Raila Odinga to serve Kenyans in that capacity. We cannot allow such brilliant leadership and experience to go to waste the way the African Union did,” said Senator Cherargei.

The National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, co-chaired by Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah, released towards the end of 2023, proposed the establishment of the offices of Prime Minister and Leader of the Official Opposition, among other recommendations.

Amending the Constitution to establish the two offices will require approval from Kenyans through a referendum. Article 255(1) of the Constitution states that a proposed amendment shall be approved by a referendum if it relates to any of the following: 

• The Constitution’s supremacy
• The territory of Kenya
• The people’s sovereignty 
• The national values and principles of governance
• The Bill of Rights
• The President’s office term
• The independence of the Judiciary and the Commissions of Independent offices
• Parliament’s functions
• The objects, principles and structure of devolved government

Major announcement

On Tuesday, February 25, Odinga began his consultative meetings in Kisumu. This followed a high-level meeting with President Ruto in Mombasa, where the two addressed various national issues. Odinga pledged to “consult wisely” as he mapped out his next move.

In Kisumu, Odinga engaged youth leaders and party officials from the county and elders from across the region. He restated that there was life after AUC’s loss and urged them to remain strong and strengthen the Orange Democratic Party (ODM) party. 

He has assured his supporters that before making any final decision, he will conduct extensive consultations across the country. “I will not confine myself to Nyanza alone. After this, I will visit other parts of Kenya,” he stated.

Odinga said that he will make a major announcement this coming week, following wide consultations across Kenya.