The opposition has embarked on a high-stakes strategy of building a new coalition ahead of the 2027 general election, with new presidential aspirants having emerged. This is expected to set the stage for a major political battle as the anticipated coalition principals begin strengthening their political parties. Later, they’ll have to choose the most formidable presidential candidate and running mate to face off against President William Ruto during the 2027 polls.

This is amidst the ongoing political shift driven by the anticipated exit of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga from local politics and excitement over a potential swing in voting patterns following last year’s Gen Z countrywide protests.  

Odinga’s sights are firmly set on the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. However, his shadow is still looming over local politics amid speculation that his party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), might forge a pre-election alliance with President Ruto’s party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Martha Karua, leader of the People’s Liberation Party (formerly Narc Kenya), says the opposition will support one candidate as their flagbearer in 2027.

“Let every aspirant grow their brand knowing at the back of their mind that Kenya is bigger than any one of us and that towards the end, we will all converge and agree on a single candidate to ensure #RutoMustGo,” she posted on X.

Narc Kenya will officially rebrand to the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) later in February. Karua confirmed that they applied for a change of name in May last year and have invited all Kenyans to join the new political outfit. Last month, she met with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and both agreed to work together towards 2027. They added that they will put Kenyans first as they make their decisions.

Gachagua also stated that he has realised that as much as political rivalry might frequently overshadow the possibility of collaboration, there are always opportunities to work together.

Additionally, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta is said to be pushing the opposition to have one presidential candidate to unseat the current Head of State in 2027.

Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni confirmed that they are working with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Party Leader), Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K party leader), George Natembeya (Trans-Nzoia County Governor), Okiya Omtata (Busia County Senator), and other leaders who believe change is necessary. Kioni also confirmed that coalition building is on, and the desire to work together is evident.    

This won’t be the opposition’s first such move, although previous similar engagements have resulted in mixed outcomes.

Coalition landscape

Since colonial times, political coalitions have reflected the country’s complex ethnic, social, and economic fabric.

Following the rise of nationalism after World War II, movements began to split colonial allegiances, leading to the formation of political parties that sought to unify various Africans under common goals.

Pre-independence, the Kenya African National Union party (KANU) emerged as a dominant force, which advocated for independence and later transitioned into a movement of political control under President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta.

This marked the commencement of coalition politics, as various factions amalgamated around the shared vision of self-governance, setting the stage for future alliances. This evolved significantly with the transition to independence in 1963. However, with time, KANU suppressed dissenting voices and marginalised opposition parties, and in the 1990s, multiparty democracy was introduced, which brought back coalitional politics.

This gave birth to the formation of the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), a party that led other opposition parties against the authoritarian regime of then-President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. FORD emphasised the role of political coalitions in challenging entrenched power structures.

Political observers state that in contemporary Kenya, political coalitions continue to play a critical role in shaping electoral outcomes and governance. For instance, the formation of political alliances such as the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2022, the Grand Coalition in 2008, the Jubilee Alliance in 2013, the National Super Alliance (NASA) in 2017, and the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, as well as Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition in 2022, illustrate the strategic composition of political actors to consolidate power and appeal to a broader electorate.

According to political analysts, these coalitions often prioritise pragmatic interest over ideological uniformity, reflecting a political culture that values coalition-building as a means of navigating the country’s diverse society.

Political scientist Prof. Peter Wanyande, writing in “The Politics of Transition in Kenya: From KANU to NARC”, observed that in Africa, pre-coalitions often emerge from ethnic or regional affiliations, as seen in Kenya.

Additionally, Alouis Chilunjika, another scholar, said post-election alliances in Africa can be unstable, reflecting the challenges of reconciling diverse political agendas. Denis Kadima and electoral law expert Felix Owour studied Kenya’s decade of experiments with political party alliances and coalitions. They explored the formation, survival, and collapse of political coalitions in Kenya and how they have influenced national cohesion. Their study revealed a mixture of outcomes. They noted that these coalitions have helped unite polarised political parties in the country, thus promoting national cohesion. However, they also observed that the formation of political coalitions weakens smaller parties in favour of larger parties.    

With over two years remaining until the next general election, political analysts have cautioned that the fervour of these political moves could impede economic growth and undermine the current regime’s economic transformation agenda.