The tide has been changing since Donald Trump clinched White House victory and is bound to shift completely with his swearing-in as US President. As he begins his second term, the world, including Africa, is bracing for what could be a defining era in geopolitics, environmental priorities, and diversity agendas.

US-Africa relations: Strategic priorities under Marco Rubio

The first sign of a change of policy is the confirmation hearings of the selected candidates for various key positions by the US Senate. 

Marco Rubio is poised to assume the role of Secretary of State, the United States’ key diplomat. He shared his vision for the United States’ relationship with Africa during his Senate Confirmation Hearing. Senators on the panel emphasised the continent’s growing strategic importance in global geopolitics and economics, and Rubio agreed that there were pressing concerns about the increasing influence of China and Russia across Africa. China’s influence, in particular, was described as a direct challenge to US global hegemony by both sides. Rubio particularly noted China’s deployment of Huawei’s “Safe City” programmes, which aim to bolster public security infrastructure across the continent. By embedding itself within Africa’s telecommunications sector and establishing dominance as a 5G leader, China is effectively setting global technology standards that many 5G-reliant industries will have to follow, potentially sidelining American technological influence.

In their discussion, Senators also spoke of their growing alarm over the lack of significant US investment in Africa, contrasting this with China and Russia’s aggressive efforts to secure strategic footholds through infrastructure development, resource extraction, and diplomatic initiatives. They pointed out that Democratic governments have historically under-prioritised Africa, despite its burgeoning significance. By 2050, the continent is projected to have one of the world’s largest populations and a substantial share of the global workforce, creating a demographic dividend that could be pivotal in driving global economic growth. This youthful, rapidly growing population and emerging middle class represent untapped markets for American goods and services.

The hearing underscored Africa’s immense wealth in natural resources, particularly arable land and critical minerals such as cobalt, which are essential for technology and agriculture. The United States needs to capitalise on these opportunities while fostering partnerships that respect African sovereignty and development goals. Senators cautioned that neglecting the continent could result in the US losing its influence in shaping global economic and political systems as China and Russia continue to deepen their engagement.

They also addressed the troubling issue of bribery by American companies operating in Africa, which undermines trust and complicates bilateral relations. They advocated for stronger corporate accountability measures to ensure that US businesses act ethically while engaging with African nations. Acknowledging the current gaps in US policy, Rubio stressed the urgency of developing a coherent strategy that recognises Africa as a critical player in the global economy and geopolitics. There was growing concern that misinformation was being spread in Africa about the US and that many African countries wanted to work with the US rather than China or Russia.

As Rubio prepares to assume his new role, the collective remarks made during the hearing signal the fact that the US recognises that its foreign policy should be geared towards greater engagement with Africa, aiming to balance strategic competition with China and Russia while fostering mutually beneficial partnerships. 

Shifting energy policies: A blow to renewables?

Rubio’s hearing is not the only indicator of what’s to come. This month, on Truth Social, Donald Trump termed windmills as the most expensive power source and economic and environmental disasters that rely solely on government subsidies. This is an indication that the new regime is set to change its Energy policy, and wind power may not be a high priority for this administration. Wind power in Kenya contributes 16% to the total generated electricity. Therefore, initiatives like the Lake Turkana Wind Power initiative could face indirect setbacks. The US pivot away from renewables may embolden similar views globally, complicating Kenya’s efforts to grow on this front.

This view again pits the US against China which currently dominates global wind turbine production, accounting for 60% of the 163 gigawatts (GW) produced in 2023. Additionally, China boasts significant excess industrial capacity in critical sectors, including electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. Regarding artificial intelligence (AI), which demands significant energy resources, Trump has advocated for the use of nuclear energy to meet these requirements. His advocacy for nuclear power reflects his administration’s broader strategy to compete with China, which plans to be a global AI leader, by favouring traditional energy sources over green alternatives.

ESG and DEI: A conservative turn

The US has seen waning interest in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing, a trend likely to continue under Trump. The US government has yet to fully commit to the Paris Climate Agreement, with Donald Trump expressing opposition to the accord during his first tenure. On EVs, he prefers a market-driven approach, allowing consumer demand and industry dynamics to shape the adoption of EV technology, which requires significant resources in setting up recharging stations across the country. This is reflective of Trump’s approach during his first term as president, where he clearly favoured trade over ESG-driven capitalism. 

This situation is not helped by the fact that a confluence of cultural, regulatory, and economic factors has contributed to the perceived demise of ESG investing in the US. 

United States regulators, like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), have scaled back on requirements for ESG disclosures and effectively reduced accountability. Interest among US investors has also reduced, as reflected in the declining share prices and shrinking assets of ESG-focused funds like BlackRock’s clean energy exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This is in sharp contrast to European regulators who have tightened ESG rules, creating a stark divergence between markets.

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives are similarly under threat. META CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s interview with popular podcast host Joe Rogan is indicative of what is to come. Zuckerberg stated that META had ended its DEI programme, joining a list of other companies that have cut back on their DEI programmes in the wake of the coming policy shift to more conservative values.  

California Mayor Karen Bass’s performance during the recent wildfires in Los Angeles has also not favoured the DEI agenda either. Mayor Bass has been accused of prioritising DEI initiatives over projects that would have mitigated the loss and damage of the fires.  With Trump coming into power, ESG and DEI are likely to meet an untimely death, and this shift is likely to sweep across the rest of the world.