China’s new Ambassador to Kenya, Ambassador Guo Haiyan, presented her credentials to President William Ruto on Monday in a grand ceremony that featured a 21-gun salute and the attendance of high-ranking officials, including Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki, Lieutenant General David Tarus, Commander of the Kenya Army, and Principal Secretary of the State Department for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Korir Sing’Oei.

The ceremony was in sharp contrast to an interview President Ruto gave at the beginning of his term with CNN’s Richard Quest, who asked categorically whether Kenya was facing East or West. He responded, “We are neither facing East nor West; we are facing forward,’’ signifying that Kenya would maintain balanced bilateral relations with both Eastern and Western countries.

Fast forward to today, and the geopolitical landscape has undergone a significant shift. The United States has re-elected Donald Trump, who has made his “America First” approach clear, in contrast to President Joe Biden’s strategy of multilateralism. Meanwhile, Kenya is grappling with finding new diplomatic and economic partners as International Monetary Fund (IMF) funding remains uncertain. With these new realities, is Kenya firmly facing the East?

Infrastructure development

Unlike his predecessors, former presidents Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki, who relied heavily on China for infrastructure projects under the China Belt and Road Initiative (CBRI), President Ruto’s government initially turned towards the West for its infrastructure agenda. A notable example is the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit Toll Road, which was to be financed by a French consortium comprising Vinci Highways SAS, Meridian Infrastructure Africa Fund, and Vinci Concessions SAS. However, this project was cancelled last year due to the prohibitive service fees attached to the financing arrangement.

Meanwhile, the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line from Naivasha to Malaba is expected to commence in the first quarter of this year, funded through the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2024. This development may indicate a shift back toward Chinese-backed projects, with the potential for initiatives like the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit Toll Road to adopt similar financing models.

Other projects reported to be financed similarly include the Rironi-Mau Summit-Malaba dual carriageway and the construction of 15 rural roads through a $2 billion Renminbi (RMB) credit facility agreement with the China Development Bank.

Chinese President Xi Jinping having pledged approximately $50 billion in financial aid to Africa, China is increasingly becoming pivotal to Kenya’s diplomatic and developmental strategy. This reflects a broader trend of shifting away from traditional Western financing and Bretton Woods Institutions such as the IMF.

Trade

On the trade front, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been instrumental in fostering trade between Kenya and the United States. This non-reciprocal trade agreement aims to promote sustainable economic growth and development in eligible Sub-Saharan African countries. However, with AGOA set to expire in 2025, President Biden initiated negotiations on the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP). However, with President-elect Donald Trump’s scepticism toward broad trade agreements and his “America First” policy stance, the likelihood of AGOA’s renewal and STIP’s finalisation remains slim.

This shifted the focus to the East, where the FOCAC 2024 summit culminated in an agreement granting Kenyan agricultural products greater access to the Chinese market. This development represents a significant boost for Kenyan farmers and traders, diversifying trade opportunities beyond traditional Western markets.

Security

The potential withdrawal of US military support from Somalia under President-elect Trump, echoing his actions in 2020, could embolden terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab and significantly heighten terrorism risks in Kenya. Despite Kenya’s designation as a major non-NATO ally under President Biden’s administration, the evolving geopolitical landscape underscores the need for Kenya to diversify its security partnerships. 

While an alignment with China on security matters would introduce significant geopolitical shifts, Kenya’s most pragmatic approach may involve reinforcing collaborations within the African Union (AU) and leveraging regional security mechanisms through the East African Community (EAC).

If President Ruto were to sit down with CNN’s Richard Quest today, it is unlikely that his once-elusive declaration, “We are neither facing East nor West; we are facing forward,” would hold sway. Kenya is unmistakably facing the East.