The unexpected return of Donald Trump Jr. to the White House brings a fresh wave of uncertainty and anticipation for African nations, particularly Kenya, which has traditionally valued the United States (US) as a strategic economic partner. As DTJ ascends into the White House for a second stab at the helm of the world’s economic powerhouse, his presidency’s implications on US-Kenya trade relations demand close scrutiny. The primary focus centres on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the nascent Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), both cornerstones of Kenya-US economic engagement.

With Trump’s historical “America First” approach under the “Make America Great Again” moniker, Kenya’s government, led by President William Ruto, faces uncertainty, particularly regarding AGOA’s future and the trajectory of STIP negotiations. Trump’s approach contrasts sharply with President Joe Biden’s strategy, which leaned towards multilateralism and fostering sustainable, mutually beneficial trade relations.

A retrospective evaluation of Trump’s first term offers insights into how his trade policies might affect US-Kenya relations and how the renewed influence of high-profile figures with radical ideologies, like Elon Musk, may also play a role.

Two worlds apart: Trump’s vs. Biden’s approaches to Africa

President Trump’s previous term was characterised by a pivot towards bilateral trade deals, often focusing on leveraging American influence to secure trade terms he viewed as “fairer” for the US. In contrast, President Biden’s administration prioritised strengthening AGOA and aligning US foreign policy with African developmental goals. President Biden’s stance on Kenya was reflected in his active engagement with multilateral frameworks and STIP—a shift from President Trump’s transactional approach.

Where President Biden’s policies offered stability, continuity, and an overarching goal of equitable development, his successor’s return signals a potential shift. Kenya’s status under AGOA, which grants duty-free access to the US for certain goods, could face review as  President Trump may push for new terms that prioritise American interests, likely moving away from blanket duty exemptions to more conditional trade benefits.

The future of AGOA: Continuation or curtailment?

AGOA has been pivotal for Kenya’s textile industry, with thousands of jobs created in export-oriented sectors. Yet President Trump’s previous approach suggests a possible re-evaluation of AGOA’s terms. Trump often voiced scepticism about blanket trade preferences, seeing them as concessions that compromised American interests. Kenya’s AGOA privileges may face stricter oversight and, potentially, narrower conditions if Trump revisits the pact. For Kenyan industries dependent on AGOA, any restriction on duty-free access could lead to job losses and economic challenges, underscoring the country’s vulnerability in a predominantly unilateral trade negotiation.

AGOA’s 2025 expiration date looms, and Trump’s re-election raises questions about whether AGOA will be extended, modified, or dismantled. Trump’s focus on bilateral agreements over multilateral pacts could lead him to propose an entirely new arrangement with Kenya, where market access becomes a point of negotiation rather than a given. While Kenya has sought to diversify its trade portfolio in recent years, reducing reliance on any single market, the US remains a key trading partner, and AGOA’s uncertain future presents real risks.

STIP: Will it survive Trump’s “America First” doctrine?

President Biden initiated STIP to provide a stable, long-term framework for US-Kenya trade, addressing a wide range of issues from labour standards to digital trade. The eighth negotiating round was held recently, signalling a deepening of relations and a commitment to more comprehensive trade ties, and reinvigorated by President Ruto’s recent official State visit to the US.

For Kenya, STIP represents a step towards securing a more structured, predictable trade relationship with the US. However, Trump’s return brings an unpredictable twist to STIP’s trajectory.

If Trump treats the partnership as he did other trade agreements—emphasising “fairness” over mutual gain—Kenya may find itself at a disadvantage. His approach may reframe the partnership’s negotiations around core US interests, potentially pressuring Kenya to accept stricter intellectual property protections, limited digital market access, and higher regulatory standards. Trump’s history suggests he may not shy away from leveraging US economic power to extract more concessions, thus complicating the spirit of STIP as a collaboration.

Learnings from Trump’s first term

During his first term, Trump exhibited a penchant for unpredictability, often disrupting trade norms and challenging long-standing agreements. African countries, including Kenya, were largely peripheral to Trump’s economic agenda, though his administration did initiate bilateral trade discussions with Kenya, showing an interest in the country’s role as a regional economic hub.

For Kenya, Trump’s approach emphasised that trade relations with the US could shift at a moment’s notice. The lesson here lies in Kenya’s need for a diversified trade portfolio, reducing dependency on the US and deepening ties with other key economies like China, the European Union (EU), and intra-African partners. Trump’s transactional style underscored the need for African nations to align with domestic growth objectives rather than overly depending on external economic agreements.

Elon Musk’s influence: A new player in African-US relations?

Alongside Trump’s re-election, the influence of high-profile figures like Elon Musk could be an unforeseen factor in US-Kenya relations. Musk, an open and ardent supporter of Trump, is known for his radical ideologies and has been primed for a role in the Trump regime—the Department of Government Efficiency, as he terms it.

Musk’s ventures, especially SpaceX’s Starlink and X (formerly Twitter), have quickly gained traction in Kenya. Starlink’s entry into the African market has reportedly transformed internet access and, subsequently, digital inclusion in rural areas. Musk’s recent expansionist moves into Africa could potentially align with Trump’s private-sector-centric outlook, where prominent business figures influence policy indirectly.

Musk’s presence could exacerbate Kenya’s digital policy challenges if his ventures align with Trump’s deregulation stance. Should Musk’s interests converge with US government priorities under Trump, there is a risk that digital governance frameworks in Kenya may be indirectly influenced by American corporate agendas, potentially challenging Kenya’s digital sovereignty. This influence highlights the importance of a comprehensive national digital strategy in Kenya to counterbalance the outsized power of global tech firms.

Broader implications for US-Kenya relations

Kenya faces a crossroads: the relationship with the US may either deepen or become constrained by Trump’s approach to economic diplomacy. Should AGOA or STIP terms change significantly, Kenya may have to adjust its economic expectations, recalibrate trade policies, and brace for tighter U.S. trade oversight. On the other hand, Trump’s return could present Kenya with an opportunity to negotiate a bilateral agreement more attuned to its strategic interests, though this would likely require strong diplomatic agility.

President Biden’s administration prioritised global health initiatives, climate action, and democratic governance, particularly in Africa. These priorities may not continue under Trump, creating potential gaps in areas critical to Kenya’s development. Health and environmental funding, previously a keystone of US-Kenya relations, may no longer be prioritised, compelling Kenya to explore alternate funding sources.

Conclusion: Potential reality check for Kenya-US relations

As Kenya stands on the cusp of a potential reorientation of its trade relationship with the US, the stakes are high. Trump’s re-election could redefine AGOA and STIP, altering Kenya’s export landscape and setting the tone for future economic engagement with the US. While the Kenya-US partnership has yielded mutual benefits, Trump’s “America First” rhetoric suggests an era of pragmatism over partnership, where concessions are conditional, and alliances are transactional.

Kenya’s policymakers are faced with the task of navigating this landscape carefully. While Trump’s emphasis on U.S. interests may shift the balance, Kenya must continue to assert its interests through strategic alliances, both regionally and globally. This new era could serve as a catalyst for Kenya to strengthen its domestic industries, foster regional trade partnerships, and build economic resilience. This will ensure that its future is shaped not just by US policies but by a balanced, diversified approach to global trade.