Fuel seldom makes headlines when plentiful. However, when economies face shortages, alarms ring everywhere. The conflict in the Middle East is escalating, and its effects are felt in Kenya’s ports, petrol stations, and government offices, as delays in shipments, price fluctuations, and warnings from the State House are straining the country’s energy system.

According to the government, there is no crisis; however, the current global energy situation reveals that, in today’s interconnected energy market, the effects will reach your doorstep sooner or later. So, how resilient is Kenya’s energy system when global problems arise? We are witnessing the answer in real time.

What Triggered the Pressure

The escalating conflict in the Middle East, stemming from the Israeli/US-Iran war, has disrupted global oil supply chains. It has altered shipping routes and increased insurance costs. For Kenya, which sources most of its fuel through the Port of Mombasa, even minor delays can cause significant issues.

Recent reports indicate that no new fuel shipments were expected at Mombasa for two weeks, making the market more responsive. Major oil companies reported temporary stock shortages as government agencies swiftly responded to reassure the public that no nationwide scarcity had been confirmed. The government explained that the main challenge lies in timing and the movement of fuel through the system: Kenya’s fuel imports depend on scheduled deliveries via the Open Tender System, organised distribution, and supply chains that operate on credit. However, even slight disruptions can cause delays in shipments or rapid price fluctuations, with pressure mounting quickly.

From Supply Strain to Enforcement Rhetoric

As the week progressed, queues at petrol stations lengthened. President William Ruto issued a firm warning to oil marketers, cautioning against artificial shortages and hoarding. “We have been very clear to our oil marketers and those with storage capabilities that we are not going to tolerate artificial shortages that benefit profiteers. We will work with all stakeholders to ensure every participant adheres to the conditions of their licences so that no one worsens the situation. Our goal is to mitigate the effects,” the President stated in a public address. His message was clear: if the problem is due to logistics, it will be managed. If it is caused deliberately, the culprits will be penalised.

But the impact extends beyond petrol stations. The fuel issue now also influences not only road transport but also airfares, logistics costs, and consumer spending. Domestic and regional airlines are raising fares as jet fuel prices climb and supply uncertainty grows. Skyward Airlines has announced fare increases for its local routes. Jambojet, among others, will introduce fuel surcharges from 1st April. Reports indicate that aviation fuel prices have surged in recent weeks, prompting airlines to adjust their fares to sustain profit margins. Since jet fuel is one of their main expenses, airlines with limited budgets are particularly affected. Furthermore, if the situation deteriorates, it will substantially impact livelihoods across the country through price hikes for LPG, kerosene, and consumer goods.  Considering all this, is there a solution?

The Stabilisation Question: Petroleum Development Levy in Focus

Alongside warnings about enforcement, Kenyans are focusing on the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL). The National Treasury has stated that the levy might be used to help shield consumers from sudden rises in fuel prices. This tool has been employed before to keep local prices stable during global price surges. However, it has its limits. Overusing it reduces the government’s financial flexibility and strains other parts of the budget. Therefore, the issue of stabilising prices is both political and economic: how much price variation should consumers tolerate, and how much should the government bear?

Tanzania’s Contrast and Regional Dynamics

Comparisons with other countries have increased focus on the issue. Tanzania has maintained a more reliable fuel supply, prompting debates on how East African nations buy and store fuel. Kenya’s Open Tender System centralises procurement, which can provide pricing advantages during stable periods but offers limited flexibility to adapt during sudden global disruptions.

 So, is this a fuel crisis? Officially, no. Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has reaffirmed that national fuel stocks remain sufficient and that the situation is being monitored carefully. The government maintains that what consumers are experiencing is a strain, not a systemic shortage. Nonetheless, Kenyans are known to believe that signs of a strain can influence markets more quickly than actual data. How? Energy markets depend on confidence as much as on supply. Therefore, even minor supply issues at busy city petrol stations can prompt people to buy fuel ‘just in case’, disrupting distribution.

Impact on Businesses

For companies and investors, this situation highlights three important facts. First, Kenya is closely linked to global energy supply chains; problems from outside the country will continue to affect local markets quickly. Tools like the PDL can help soften the impact, but they depend on the government’s budget and willingness to use them. And finally, how the government regulates the market is important; strong messages from the President show that the government is actively working to ensure that regulatory agencies adhere to mandates.

Furthermore, energy is essential for maintaining economic stability. Various sectors, such as healthcare and telecommunications, require a reliable power supply and backup systems to operate smoothly. Large companies typically hold reserves, but prolonged supply issues increase costs for everyone.

The Broader Energy Security Question

The conflict in the Middle East has once again revealed a long-standing weakness: reliance on imported fuel in a world where politics can change rapidly. Long-term resilience will depend on expanding strategic reserves, diversifying supply sources, improving storage infrastructure, and accelerating renewable energy deployment. Kenya has made significant progress in renewable energy; however, transport, aviation, and industry still rely on petroleum. Until those sectors change substantially, global issues will continue to test Kenya’s energy system.

Looking Ahead

The Middle East conflict may be unfolding thousands of kilometres away, yet its aftershocks are felt at Kenyan fuel stations. Currently, the system is under pressure but not collapsing. Regulators are monitoring the situation more closely, and stabilisation tools are still available. In energy markets, true resilience does not emerge during calm times; it becomes evident under pressure. The key question is whether public confidence will endure.