Kenya is producing more milk than before, yet supermarket shelves are still running dry. So where is all the milk going? At the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum, President William Ruto’s economic adviser, Dr. David Ndii, offered an unexpected explanation: Kenyans may simply be drinking more of it. 

Speaking at the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on 3 November, Dr. Ndii was asked about the milk situation. He said Kenya was producing and processing more milk than in previous years, prompting him to question why shortages persisted at the consumer level. 

Themed “Sustaining Economic Resilience: Protecting Our Policy Gains in 2027”, the forum brought together government officials, financial sector players, development partners and private sector representatives to review Kenya’s economic performance and outlook ahead of the 2027 General Election. 

While discussions largely focused on fiscal discipline, investment, employment and economic reforms, Dr. Ndii used the dairy sector to show how changes in production and consumer spending can reveal economic activity not fully captured by headline statistics. 

Rising Milk Production and Consumer Demand 

Citing data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Dr. Ndii said milk production had risen by about 20% since 2022 to approximately 5.6 billion litres, while milk intake by processors had increased by about 34%. He questioned how supermarket shortages could occur when both production and processor intake had increased, suggesting that rising demand could be the explanation. 

According to Dr. Ndii, increased consumption was partly driven by jobs created through government projects, particularly the Affordable Housing Programme. He cited construction sites where workers were regularly seen drinking milk, arguing that increased employment had enabled more Kenyans to afford products they previously consumed only occasionally. 

He argued that this reflected a wider shift in household consumption: as more people earn an income, demand for everyday goods rises, potentially putting pressure on supply and distribution systems. 

Dr. Ndii also questioned whether conventional economic statistics fully captured activity in Kenya’s informal economy, particularly amid changes in employment, agricultural production and consumer spending. He argued that production figures must be considered alongside shifts in consumer behaviour to provide a clearer picture of the country’s economic performance. 

Ruto Echoes Ndii’s Remarks on Milk Shortages 

President William Ruto later echoed these remarks at the Industrialisation Summit at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre on 4 November 2026. 

The President attributed rising milk consumption to increased employment and purchasing power, particularly among workers on affordable housing projects. He cited higher milk production and processing as evidence of growth in the dairy sector, arguing that increased demand from newly employed Kenyans was contributing to shortages in retail outlets. 

However, this explanation raises a further question: can increased consumption alone account for the shortages? 

What the Production Figures Show 

According to the KNBS Economic Survey 2026, milk production in Kenya rose from approximately 5.33 billion litres in 2024 to 5.52 billion litres in 2025, representing a 3.5% increase. 

However, the KNBS August 2026 Leading Economic Indicators show that formal milk deliveries to processors fell by 5.1% month-on-month, from 81.3 million litres in July to 77.1 million litres in August. This points to continued pressure on the formal dairy supply chain. 

The Kenya Dairy Board has also cited dry weather and pressure on animal feed supplies as contributing factors to reduced deliveries, suggesting that production and distribution challenges remain significant. 

Taken together, these developments suggest that rising consumer demand and supply-side constraints may be occurring simultaneously. Although higher employment may be supporting increased consumption, the available figures do not establish how much additional demand is attributable to the Affordable Housing Programme. 

Beyond Macroeconomic Stability 

The milk discussion reflected a broader theme at the NCBA Economic Forum: the need to understand how economic growth translates into changes in household incomes, consumption and productivity. 

The dairy sector must therefore respond to rising consumer demand by ensuring consistent milk production, strengthening processing capacity and improving distribution networks. 

As policymakers seek to sustain economic resilience into 2027, the debate underscores the importance of examining both national production statistics and supply-chain conditions to understand why higher output does not always translate into consistent availability for consumers.