The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a generational wager on African self-determination. This is premised on the idea that the continent’s economic salvation lies not in the benevolence of external markets, but in the power of internal trade, finance, and cooperation. Against this grand aspiration, the recent acquisition of the National Bank of Kenya (NBK) by Nigeria’s Access Bank stands out as more than a commercial transaction. It is an inflexion point that raises questions about what African integration looks like on the ground – and more importantly, in the vaults.

Access Bank’s expansion strategy represents a new era of intra-African finance. Its entry into the Kenyan market, through three separate acquisition attempts: Transnational Bank, Sidian Bank (unsuccessful), and now NBK, marks a significant pivot in Africa’s banking geography. 

Historically, African banks operated within national or regional silos, often constrained by colonial-era banking systems or dependent on Western capital. Today, however, we are witnessing the emergence of a pan-African financial elite. This is led by institutions like Ecobank, Standard Bank (South Africa), NCBA Group (Kenya), Equity Bank (Kenya), KCB Group (Kenya), and now Access Bank, among others, which are redrawing the map of African finance in ways that reflect and influence AfCFTA’s ambitions.

To understand the transformative potential of such acquisitions, one must look beyond Kenya and Nigeria. Consider Ecobank’s long-standing pan-African strategy. With operations in over 30 African countries, the Togolese-headquartered bank has become a blueprint for cross-border financial integration. Leveraging shared platforms, centralised risk management, and a unified digital backbone, Ecobank offers services across multiple regulatory regimes while supporting intra-African trade, particularly among small and medium enterprises (SMEs). While not without its governance and profitability challenges, Ecobank’s model demonstrates that African banks can operate at scale, support trade corridors, and bridge the linguistic, legal, and logistical divides that have long fragmented the continent.

Similarly, Kenya’s leading banks, including KCB Group, NCBA and Equity, have embraced cross-border growth and positioned themselves as key enablers of Africa’s financial interconnectivity. For instance, KCB Group has pursued a complementary path in its expansion strategy, balancing financial inclusion strategies and segment-targeted services. The Group has quietly constructed one of the region’s most geographically diversified banking footprints. KCB, which has subsidiaries in Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, South Sudan, and Tanzania,  recently made a foray into the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by acquiring Trust Merchant Bank (TMB).  TMB’s deep local penetration, especially in mining and cross-border logistics, has allowed KCB to plug directly into DRC’s economic arteries. With AfCFTA aiming to reduce non-tariff barriers and boost inter-regional value chains, such acquisitions are not mere expansions but strategic investments in future trade ecosystems.

The integration benefits of these cross-border acquisitions will not materialise by default. They hinge on whether regulatory bodies can harmonise their frameworks and collaborate on shared supervision. In theory, the East African Community (EAC) and ECOWAS should be natural allies in this effort. Yet, inter-bloc coordination remains minimal. A Kenyan entrepreneur banking with a Nigerian lender like Access Bank should be able to trade seamlessly across borders, with clear protocols for dispute resolution, know-your-customer (KYC) data sharing, and access to affordable credit denominated in local currencies. At present, none of this is guaranteed.

This is where AfCFTA’s budding protocols on financial services and digital trade must accelerate. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), piloted by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), is designed to facilitate real-time transactions across African currencies without routing through the dollar or euro. KCB has already been integrated into PAPSS. If picked up by other financial institutions, this system could dramatically lower the cost of intra-African trade and reduce dependence on foreign currency reserves. Yet as of early 2025, PAPSS remains underutilised, with limited commercial bank uptake and uneven central bank alignment. For deals like Access Bank-NBK to catalyse AfCFTA’s financial infrastructure, policy should encourage it and compel interoperability.

Another dimension is the imbalance in market access across the continent. Many banks face significant regulatory hurdles when attempting to expand into certain markets. This is because entry is often subject to stringent requirements such as substantial capital buffers, local incorporation, and adherence to strict central bank regulations. Conversely, banks from other regions may encounter fewer obstacles when entering different markets. This imbalance undermines the principles of reciprocity envisioned in the AfCFTA. It emphasises the need for a unified framework to liberalise the financial sector, ensuring a more equitable and level playing field across all markets.

Moreover, there is a silent risk that the consolidation trend may eclipse the space for indigenous, community-based financial models. As banks scale regionally, smaller cooperatives, credit unions, and mobile money operators could be crowded out unless public policy protects their role in financial inclusion. AfCFTA’s success will not be measured solely by the balance sheets of continental giants, but by the extent to which financial services reach the informal sector, rural areas, and women-led enterprises.

Finally, systemic risk looms large. With African banks becoming increasingly transnational, failures will not respect borders. Do we have financial stability frameworks and regional safety nets, such as a continent-wide deposit insurance scheme or a lender of last resort mechanism, to respond to such shocks? Not yet. This leaves the continent exposed to contagion risk, just as it begins to build shared financial systems.

In conclusion, the Access Bank-NBK deal is more than a banking story. It is a litmus test for AfCFTA’s institutional depth. It forces policymakers to confront the disjuncture between integration on paper and in practice. If properly managed, positive indicators are already there; the acquisition could symbolise a new era of African financial solidarity, where capital circulates within the continent, SMES find tailored solutions, and trade flourishes across once-impermeable borders. But if left to the invisible hand of the market alone, it could reproduce the same inequalities AfCFTA was meant to correct.