As the world prepares to convene at the 30th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 30) in Belem, Brazil (10-20 November 2025), the global climate agenda stands at an inflexion point. The preceding summit, COP 29, held in Baku, yielded significant advances that will frame expectations and realities for COP 30. 

 

Lessons and Achievements from COP 29

The success of COP 29 was the creation of a new “New Collective Quantified Goal” (NCQG) aiming to mobilise at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035, with developed nations to take the lead by generating at least USD 300 billion each year. This financial milestone marked both progress and frustration: it made new advances, yet many developing countries argued that the scale and urgency of the resources fell short of what was needed. 

Another key outcome was progress on the rules for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which focused on mechanisms to facilitate international carbon trading and non-market approaches. Additionally, COP 29 reaffirmed the Paris goals and provided incremental momentum for the transition. This was achieved despite strong headwinds: geopolitical friction, slow increases in ambition, and concerns over implementation. 

 

What to Expect at COP 30

The negotiations at COP 30 will be a fierce tug-of-war. Developing nations, bearing the majority of climate impacts they minimally caused, will arrive with needs-based assessments amounting to trillions of dollars each year. Developed countries, under their own economic strain, will advocate for a figure they find politically acceptable and that broadens the donor base to include key emerging economies. Expect Belem to host the most intense finance talks since Paris. 

1. Updated NDCs and ambition escalation

With years slipping towards 2030, parties face pressure to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aligned with maintaining global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. COP 30 will serve as the platform to present these updates, assess progress so far, and signal intentions for deep decarbonisation. However, warning signs are already appearing, with major emitters like the European Union reportedly missing their deadlines to submit new targets. This highlights the risk that COP 30 might prioritise process over an immediate boost in ambition. 

 

2. Climate Finance and Mobilising the NCQG

COP 30 will be the first major checkpoint on how the USD 1.3 trillion goal might be achieved: the mix of public, private, and multilateral finance, and the instruments (grants, concessional loans, blended finance) to be utilised. Additionally, adaptation, loss, and damage financing will remain a key point of contention, particularly for vulnerable and developing countries that considered COP 29’s outcomes inadequate. In the East African region, this entails focusing on delivery mechanisms rather than just headline figures. It also involves financial accessibility, mobilisation of private-sector funds, and equitable participation. 

 

3. Carbon Markets, Just Transition and Social Dimensions

The progress made in Article 6 at COP 29 continues into COP 30; negotiators must develop practical frameworks for carbon trading, prevent double counting, safeguard the integrity of offsets, and ensure markets are aligned with real-economy transformations. Similarly, COP 30 is expected to focus more on the social aspects of the transition. How it impacts workers and communities, and how to make the “just transition” a central element rather than an afterthought. Regionally, this involves signalling job transitions away from coal and peat, expanding renewable energy initiatives, and establishing mechanisms for inclusive growth within the green economy. 

 

As East Africa faces disproportionate climate impacts (droughts, floods, and biodiversity loss) and yet contributes minimally to global emissions, the outcomes of COP 30 will be significant in the following ways:

• The scale of climate finance mobilisation and whether adaptation, loss, and damage start to receive the urgency and resources they deserve. 
• The opportunity to promote nature-based solutions such as forest restoration, bio-economy, and climate-smart agriculture as credible options for private and public investment.
• The necessity for East African actors such as governments, the private sector, and financial institutions to engage proactively in market mechanisms, provide disclosures aligned with global standards, and prepare for the era of “green” investor expectations. 

 

Conclusion

COP 30 in Belem is set to be a conference focused on implementation and accountability. The foundational work of COP 29 on finance lays the groundwork for a high-stakes showdown over figures and mechanisms. The approaching 2025 NDC deadline requires that the vague ambitions of past COPs be turned into clear, enhanced national plans. The world will arrive in Brazil insisting that past promises will finally be fulfilled and that a route to a liveable future is definitively charted.