The death of Hon. Raila Odinga has left Kenya’s politics in a state of transition. For over three decades, Raila, who dominated Kenya’s political landscape, has left the scene in uncertainty. He was the undisputed opposition leader, entered into several coalition agreements, and participated in various phases of resistance. He was also regarded as a champion of democracy and political reform in the country.

Since the 1980s, he opposed the one-party rule under President Daniel arap Moi. He advocated for human rights and endured detention, torture, and exile. Between 2008 and 2013, he led efforts in post-election reconciliation and the creation of a new constitutional order.

Raila’s death appears to have left his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) divided over whether to continue backing President William Ruto’s broad-based government. Hours after his death, ODM’s National Executive Council (NEC) convened a special session and appointed Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga as acting party leader, raising suspicion within its ranks. Party insiders suggest the move aims to provide a transitional figure as ODM prepares for what is expected to be a fierce succession battle. Political analysts assert that Raila’s death is a major blow to ODM’s future, which now faces significant internal divisions.

There is already confusion within the party over what exactly the late Raila said about its future – whether to remain in the broad-based government or to leave and pursue independence in the 2027 general elections. As the party wrestles with its future and direction, party leaders are offering differing interpretations of Raila’s final political counsel.

One side of the leadership, led by ODM Secretary-General and Nairobi County Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, and deputy party leaders Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga Senator) and Simba Arati (Kisii Governor), wants the party to field a presidential candidate in 2027. 

Senator Sifuna maintains that Raila’s final instruction was for the party to concentrate on preparing for the 2027 general elections. “Those spreading other narratives should remember Raila once asked them, ‘Who has told you?’” Sifuna’s comments appear to emphasise the late party leader’s last directive regarding the party’s readiness for the next polls.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati appears to share similar views, reassuring ODM supporters that the party will remain strong and is committed to the struggle ahead. “I want to assure ODM members that the party is going nowhere. We have just started the struggle, and we must win the presidential election,” Arati vowed.

Believing in the importance of multi-partyism, Siaya Governor James Orengo called for preserving ODM’s identity. “I am one of the people who believe we must keep ODM. President Ruto let us not kill parties. Political parties are the foundation of democracy,” he cautioned.

The other side, which includes ODM Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, and Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, states that Raila wished for the party to remain in the government and support President Ruto’s re-election campaign.

Governor Wanga recalled that Raila’s last instruction, during the burial of Dr. Phoebe Asiyo, was to work with President Ruto. “That is the last standing instruction that Baba gave us,” she emphasised, and suggested that cooperation with the government was Raila’s chosen path.

Similarly, Junet Mohamed argued that Raila had explicitly instructed ODM to stay within the broad-based government, stating that the party would “either form the government or be part of it”. Likewise, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi insisted that Raila had made it clear before his death that he wanted ODM to be involved in government. “As a party, we will be in a broad-based government,” he said.

Clearly, ODM faces a crossroads, caught between supporting President Ruto’s broad-based government or restoring its traditional role as the main opposition as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. Only time will tell how this situation unfolds.