The majority of Kenyans feel that the country is moving in the wrong direction. The latest opinion poll released by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) shows a declining optimism about the country’s trajectory between 2023 and 2025.

A national survey conducted by TIFA between August 23 and September 3, 2025, shows that 62 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 48 per cent who felt this way in 2023.

The findings reflect Kenyans’ dissatisfaction with governance, economic performance, and the impact of recent policies, including the Finance Bill, 2025, and the cost of living.

In the political sphere, the broad-based government faces a legitimacy challenge, as opposition is not only dominant but also growing. According to the survey, 64 per cent of Kenyans are opposed to it. Although support has inched up slightly, it remains far overshadowed by those opposed, and indecision is declining as Kenyans become more decisive in their stance.

Fewer than one-third of Kenyans support the broad-based government (29%), while more than twice as many oppose it (64%). The remaining 7% chose not to share their opinion on this informal yet influential political group. This latter figure has decreased significantly since TIFA’s May survey, which explains the rise in both “support” and “oppose” figures (the former by 7% and the latter by 10%).

The broad-based government became active last year, when President William Ruto participated in an Africa-wide campaign supporting former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid to become the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

During that period, the two leaders announced their partnership in a “broad-based government” which shortly thereafter saw the appointment of several senior Orange Democratic Movement party (ODM) members to the Cabinet. Subsequently, more of Odinga’s associates were appointed to various senior government positions. This agreement effectively rendered ODM’s parliamentary role as the official opposition party.

The partnership seemed to strengthen further after Odinga failed to secure the AUC chairmanship in February, with President Ruto making several visits to the former Prime Minister’s Nyanza region to commission development projects, among other activities.

Although these two leaders are popular, this arrangement has raised concerns among their respective core support bases for various reasons. With less than two years to the next general election, its developing impact is drawing serious attention across the political landscape.

Regarding the economy, Kenyans largely believe that their personal and family financial situations have worsened since the last general election, with a notable increase in those reporting declining circumstances.

“While robust majorities across all of Kenya’s nine zones report their personal or family’s economic situation as having worsened since the last election, such negative figures are highest in Mt. Kenya and Nairobi (85% and 74%, respectively),” the report notes.

The report also reveals that, by contrast, the lowest such negative figure comes from Northern at 41%. At the same time, only Northern has a proportion of those reporting any improvement in their economic conditions close to one-third (31%), more than double the figure for the next highest region in Central Rift and Lower Eastern, which is 14%. The lowest such figure comes from residents of the Mt. Kenya area, at 3%. 

Comparing results with TIFA’s most recent previous survey in May, it is clear that slightly fewer Kenyans have experienced a worsening of their economic situation since the 2022 general election (70% vs. 75%), even as those reporting that their economic situation has improved have remained the same (10%).

Such a modest improvement, particularly over a relatively short four-month period, advises caution in assuming that economic progress for most Kenyans is on a steady upward trajectory.  

The survey results show that a clear majority of Kenyans are unhappy with the broad-based government, even more than before. These outcomes mainly reflect the stressful and worsening economic conditions affecting most Kenyans.

Regarding the behaviour of the security forces, especially since the Gen-Z protests of June 2024, even a modest majority of supporters of the broad-based government feel that the government is not doing enough to investigate and stop the extra-judicial killings and abductions that increased both then and again this year in connection with the anniversary of that event, as well as the Saba-Saba demo-protests a month later.  

Furthermore, the fact that strong majorities across the political spectrum attribute such human rights violations to state intent or operatives also helps to explain the generally negative views about the country’s direction.

According to TIFA’s findings, if the past is any guide, tensions are likely to increase as the August 2027 general election approaches.